Current short-range ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS, combined with AEMET guidance showing above-normal temperatures across central Spain for the August 31–September 6 period, are anchoring trader sentiment around 34–35 °C. Madrid’s urban heat island and clear-sky subsidence under persistent high pressure favor daytime maxima 2–4 °C above the 1991–2020 climatological average of ~30 °C for September 1. The near-even split between the two leading outcomes reflects typical 1–2 °C uncertainty ranges in 48-hour maximum-temperature predictions, driven by small variations in boundary-layer mixing, wind direction, and soil-moisture feedbacks. Later-week warming signals and seasonal outlook for continued warmth further support the market’s focus on the upper end of the plausible range while leaving room for downward revisions if cooler Atlantic air intrudes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Madrid on September 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 1?
35°C 46%
34°C 44%
33°C 8%
32°C 5%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 1, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
5%
33°C
8%
34°C
44%
35°C
46%
36°C
5%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 46%
34°C 44%
33°C 8%
32°C 5%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 1, 2026
30°C or below
$89 Vol.
1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C
$5 Vol.
5%
33°C
$0 Vol.
8%
34°C
$39 Vol.
44%
35°C
$33 Vol.
46%
36°C
$7 Vol.
5%
37°C
$0 Vol.
2%
38°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS, combined with AEMET guidance showing above-normal temperatures across central Spain for the August 31–September 6 period, are anchoring trader sentiment around 34–35 °C. Madrid’s urban heat island and clear-sky subsidence under persistent high pressure favor daytime maxima 2–4 °C above the 1991–2020 climatological average of ~30 °C for September 1. The near-even split between the two leading outcomes reflects typical 1–2 °C uncertainty ranges in 48-hour maximum-temperature predictions, driven by small variations in boundary-layer mixing, wind direction, and soil-moisture feedbacks. Later-week warming signals and seasonal outlook for continued warmth further support the market’s focus on the upper end of the plausible range while leaving room for downward revisions if cooler Atlantic air intrudes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$173Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS, combined with AEMET guidance showing above-normal temperatures across central Spain for the August 31–September 6 period, are anchoring trader sentiment around 34–35 °C. Madrid’s urban heat island and clear-sky subsidence under persistent high pressure favor daytime maxima 2–4 °C above the 1991–2020 climatological average of ~30 °C for September 1. The near-even split between the two leading outcomes reflects typical 1–2 °C uncertainty ranges in 48-hour maximum-temperature predictions, driven by small variations in boundary-layer mixing, wind direction, and soil-moisture feedbacks. Later-week warming signals and seasonal outlook for continued warmth further support the market’s focus on the upper end of the plausible range while leaving room for downward revisions if cooler Atlantic air intrudes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$173Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS, combined with AEMET guidance showing above-normal temperatures across central Spain for the August 31–September 6 period, are anchoring trader sentiment around 34–35 °C. Madrid’s urban heat island and clear-sky subsidence under persistent high pressure favor daytime maxima 2–4 °C above the 1991–2020 climatological average of ~30 °C for September 1. The near-even split between the two leading outcomes reflects typical 1–2 °C uncertainty ranges in 48-hour maximum-temperature predictions, driven by small variations in boundary-layer mixing, wind direction, and soil-moisture feedbacks. Later-week warming signals and seasonal outlook for continued warmth further support the market’s focus on the upper end of the plausible range while leaving room for downward revisions if cooler Atlantic air intrudes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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