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Ekonomiya·Patakaran Sa Ekonomiya

GDP growth in 2026

icon for GDP growth in 2026
Ekonomiya·Patakaran Sa Ekonomiya

GDP growth in 2026

Oct 29

Jan 29, 2027

Oct 29

Jan 29, 2027

2.0–2.5% 31%

1.5–2.0% 29.5%

>2.5% 27%

1.0–1.5% 9.8%

Polymarket

$58,327 Vol.

2.0–2.5% 31%

1.5–2.0% 29.5%

>2.5% 27%

1.0–1.5% 9.8%

Polymarket

$58,327 Vol.

<0.5%

$7,479 Vol.

5%

0.5–1.0%

$17,293 Vol.

2%

1.0–1.5%

$3,824 Vol.

10%

1.5–2.0%

$6,632 Vol.

30%

2.0–2.5%

$7,095 Vol.

31%

>2.5%

$16,004 Vol.

27%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments have created closely matched probabilities across the 1.5–2.5% GDP growth ranges for 2026, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty around the balance of fiscal tailwinds and headwinds. The Congressional Budget Office projects 2.2% real GDP expansion for the year, supported by effects from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting investment and consumption early in the period, alongside AI-driven productivity gains shifting growth toward business capital spending. However, Q2 2026 GDP advanced at just a 1.5% annualized rate, while tariffs, reduced immigration, and softening consumer affordability introduce downside risks that cap upside bets above 2.5%. Market-implied odds near 30% each for the leading bins underscore these competing forces ahead of further data releases and potential policy adjustments.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,327
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 29, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments have created closely matched probabilities across the 1.5–2.5% GDP growth ranges for 2026, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty around the balance of fiscal tailwinds and headwinds. The Congressional Budget Office projects 2.2% real GDP expansion for the year, supported by effects from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting investment and consumption early in the period, alongside AI-driven productivity gains shifting growth toward business capital spending. However, Q2 2026 GDP advanced at just a 1.5% annualized rate, while tariffs, reduced immigration, and softening consumer affordability introduce downside risks that cap upside bets above 2.5%. Market-implied odds near 30% each for the leading bins underscore these competing forces ahead of further data releases and potential policy adjustments.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,327
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 29, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Kaugnay

icon for Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

4%
icon for Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?

Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?

29%
icon for Recession sa US bago matapos ang 2026?

Recession sa US bago matapos ang 2026?

8%
Oo

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "GDP growth in 2026" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 6 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "2.0–2.5%" sa 31%, sinusundan ng "1.5–2.0%" sa 30%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 31¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 31% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "GDP growth in 2026" ay naka-generate ng $58.3K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 12, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "GDP growth in 2026," i-browse ang 6 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "GDP growth in 2026" ay "2.0–2.5%" sa 31%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 31% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "1.5–2.0%" sa 30%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "GDP growth in 2026" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.