Elevated May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year, fueled by energy price shocks, combined with a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and solid payroll gains, has driven trader consensus toward delayed or absent Fed rate cuts in 2026. The federal funds target range remains steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with futures and prediction markets assigning over 99% probability of no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting and roughly 75-80% odds of zero cuts for the full year. Recent dot plots and economist forecasts, including Goldman Sachs projections for initial easing only in 2027, reflect this data-driven caution amid above-target price pressures. Key near-term catalysts include the upcoming FOMC statement, revised economic projections, and subsequent CPI and employment releases that could shift the policy path.