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icon for Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

icon for Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

BAGO
Polymarket

$4,714 Vol.

Polymarket
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August 30

$1,544 Vol.

22%

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October 31

$501 Vol.

47%

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December 31

$534 Vol.

54%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) myiasis in livestock is driven by larval infestation of wounds, with females laying eggs that hatch into flesh-eating maggots; the U.S. has maintained eradication since the 1960s via sterile insect technique (SIT) releases along the southern border.** The June 2026 index case in a Zavala County, Texas calf triggered an APHIS/TAHC response with additional confirmations in La Salle, Gillespie, and other Texas counties through early summer, plus one non-livestock detection in a New Mexico dog near the border. As of mid-August 2026, active cases remain concentrated in Texas livestock with no verified spread to other states in cattle, goats, or sheep per USDA dashboards. Key controls include expanded SIT dispersal, wound treatment protocols, movement restrictions, and port monitoring (e.g., Douglas, AZ reopening August 24 with the nearest active case ~325 miles away). Trader sentiment hinges on containment success versus northward or interstate livestock/wildlife movement during peak fly activity. Upcoming APHIS surveillance updates, any new county-level confirmations, and model runs on fly dispersal or import risk will be primary near-term catalysts. Historical precedent shows rapid SIT response can limit outbreaks, but border proximity sustains reintroduction pressure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$4,714
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 9, 2026, 10:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) myiasis in livestock is driven by larval infestation of wounds, with females laying eggs that hatch into flesh-eating maggots; the U.S. has maintained eradication since the 1960s via sterile insect technique (SIT) releases along the southern border.** The June 2026 index case in a Zavala County, Texas calf triggered an APHIS/TAHC response with additional confirmations in La Salle, Gillespie, and other Texas counties through early summer, plus one non-livestock detection in a New Mexico dog near the border. As of mid-August 2026, active cases remain concentrated in Texas livestock with no verified spread to other states in cattle, goats, or sheep per USDA dashboards. Key controls include expanded SIT dispersal, wound treatment protocols, movement restrictions, and port monitoring (e.g., Douglas, AZ reopening August 24 with the nearest active case ~325 miles away). Trader sentiment hinges on containment success versus northward or interstate livestock/wildlife movement during peak fly activity. Upcoming APHIS surveillance updates, any new county-level confirmations, and model runs on fly dispersal or import risk will be primary near-term catalysts. Historical precedent shows rapid SIT response can limit outbreaks, but border proximity sustains reintroduction pressure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$4,714
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 9, 2026, 10:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by..." ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 4 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "December 31" sa 54%, sinusundan ng "October 31" sa 47%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 54¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 54% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by..." ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Jun 9, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...," i-browse ang 4 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by..." ay "December 31" sa 54%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 54% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "October 31" sa 47%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by..." ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.