Traders assign a 79.5% implied probability to No on the Natural Disaster in 2026 market primarily because the contract requires a qualifying event meeting narrow, predefined thresholds that have not yet materialized despite active seismic, flood, and wildfire activity tracked by USGS, NHC, and NOAA. Ongoing 2026 events such as magnitude 7+ earthquakes, monsoon-driven floods in Asia, and North American wildfires fall short of resolution criteria based on magnitude scales, insured loss thresholds, or geographic boundaries. With nine months remaining and historical data showing infrequent alignment with such precise standards, market sentiment favors No absent a major escalation in intensity or a new high-impact event. Upcoming NOAA seasonal outlooks and USGS seismic updates could shift odds if models indicate heightened risk.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
21% tsansa
$240,641 Vol.
$240,641 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
21% tsansa
$240,641 Vol.
$240,641 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 79.5% implied probability to No on the Natural Disaster in 2026 market primarily because the contract requires a qualifying event meeting narrow, predefined thresholds that have not yet materialized despite active seismic, flood, and wildfire activity tracked by USGS, NHC, and NOAA. Ongoing 2026 events such as magnitude 7+ earthquakes, monsoon-driven floods in Asia, and North American wildfires fall short of resolution criteria based on magnitude scales, insured loss thresholds, or geographic boundaries. With nine months remaining and historical data showing infrequent alignment with such precise standards, market sentiment favors No absent a major escalation in intensity or a new high-impact event. Upcoming NOAA seasonal outlooks and USGS seismic updates could shift odds if models indicate heightened risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$240,641Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 79.5% implied probability to No on the Natural Disaster in 2026 market primarily because the contract requires a qualifying event meeting narrow, predefined thresholds that have not yet materialized despite active seismic, flood, and wildfire activity tracked by USGS, NHC, and NOAA. Ongoing 2026 events such as magnitude 7+ earthquakes, monsoon-driven floods in Asia, and North American wildfires fall short of resolution criteria based on magnitude scales, insured loss thresholds, or geographic boundaries. With nine months remaining and historical data showing infrequent alignment with such precise standards, market sentiment favors No absent a major escalation in intensity or a new high-impact event. Upcoming NOAA seasonal outlooks and USGS seismic updates could shift odds if models indicate heightened risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$240,641Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 79.5% implied probability to No on the Natural Disaster in 2026 market primarily because the contract requires a qualifying event meeting narrow, predefined thresholds that have not yet materialized despite active seismic, flood, and wildfire activity tracked by USGS, NHC, and NOAA. Ongoing 2026 events such as magnitude 7+ earthquakes, monsoon-driven floods in Asia, and North American wildfires fall short of resolution criteria based on magnitude scales, insured loss thresholds, or geographic boundaries. With nine months remaining and historical data showing infrequent alignment with such precise standards, market sentiment favors No absent a major escalation in intensity or a new high-impact event. Upcoming NOAA seasonal outlooks and USGS seismic updates could shift odds if models indicate heightened risk.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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