The near-certain 99.4% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 stem from fundamental geophysical limits documented by the USGS and peer-reviewed scaling laws. No known fault system on Earth is long enough to generate the required seismic moment; a magnitude 10 event would demand rupture across thousands of kilometers, far exceeding the longest observed megathrust segments such as Chile’s 1960 Valdivia fault. Historical maxima reach only 9.5, and recent 2026 activity has remained well below 8.0. With just months remaining until 2027, the probability of any such event is vanishingly small. The only conceivable shifts would require unforeseen revisions to moment-magnitude relationships or an unprecedented global rupture scenario not supported by current tectonic data.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update10.0 o sa itaas lindol bago 2027?
10.0 o sa itaas lindol bago 2027?
<1% tsansa
$792,663 Vol.
$792,663 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1% tsansa
$792,663 Vol.
$792,663 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain 99.4% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 stem from fundamental geophysical limits documented by the USGS and peer-reviewed scaling laws. No known fault system on Earth is long enough to generate the required seismic moment; a magnitude 10 event would demand rupture across thousands of kilometers, far exceeding the longest observed megathrust segments such as Chile’s 1960 Valdivia fault. Historical maxima reach only 9.5, and recent 2026 activity has remained well below 8.0. With just months remaining until 2027, the probability of any such event is vanishingly small. The only conceivable shifts would require unforeseen revisions to moment-magnitude relationships or an unprecedented global rupture scenario not supported by current tectonic data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$792,663Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain 99.4% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 stem from fundamental geophysical limits documented by the USGS and peer-reviewed scaling laws. No known fault system on Earth is long enough to generate the required seismic moment; a magnitude 10 event would demand rupture across thousands of kilometers, far exceeding the longest observed megathrust segments such as Chile’s 1960 Valdivia fault. Historical maxima reach only 9.5, and recent 2026 activity has remained well below 8.0. With just months remaining until 2027, the probability of any such event is vanishingly small. The only conceivable shifts would require unforeseen revisions to moment-magnitude relationships or an unprecedented global rupture scenario not supported by current tectonic data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$792,663Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain 99.4% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 stem from fundamental geophysical limits documented by the USGS and peer-reviewed scaling laws. No known fault system on Earth is long enough to generate the required seismic moment; a magnitude 10 event would demand rupture across thousands of kilometers, far exceeding the longest observed megathrust segments such as Chile’s 1960 Valdivia fault. Historical maxima reach only 9.5, and recent 2026 activity has remained well below 8.0. With just months remaining until 2027, the probability of any such event is vanishingly small. The only conceivable shifts would require unforeseen revisions to moment-magnitude relationships or an unprecedented global rupture scenario not supported by current tectonic data.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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