The 88.5% implied probability for “No” reflects the absence of additional U.S. military actions to seize or control territory in Latin America since the January 2026 targeted strike in Venezuela that removed Nicolás Maduro. Current policy under the Trump administration centers on joint counter-cartel operations with partners including Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, and Honduras, alongside sanctions, fuel blockades, and diplomatic pressure on Cuba and other nations. Recent August developments, such as expanded land-based cooperation against designated terrorist organizations and warnings issued near Mexico, have not escalated to offensive campaigns aimed at establishing U.S. control. Traders appear to view these measures, along with ongoing regional elections and bilateral engagements, as unlikely to produce a qualifying invasion before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว12% โอกาส
$269,867 ปริมาณ
$269,867 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
12% โอกาส
$269,867 ปริมาณ
$269,867 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The 88.5% implied probability for “No” reflects the absence of additional U.S. military actions to seize or control territory in Latin America since the January 2026 targeted strike in Venezuela that removed Nicolás Maduro. Current policy under the Trump administration centers on joint counter-cartel operations with partners including Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, and Honduras, alongside sanctions, fuel blockades, and diplomatic pressure on Cuba and other nations. Recent August developments, such as expanded land-based cooperation against designated terrorist organizations and warnings issued near Mexico, have not escalated to offensive campaigns aimed at establishing U.S. control. Traders appear to view these measures, along with ongoing regional elections and bilateral engagements, as unlikely to produce a qualifying invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$269,867วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The 88.5% implied probability for “No” reflects the absence of additional U.S. military actions to seize or control territory in Latin America since the January 2026 targeted strike in Venezuela that removed Nicolás Maduro. Current policy under the Trump administration centers on joint counter-cartel operations with partners including Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, and Honduras, alongside sanctions, fuel blockades, and diplomatic pressure on Cuba and other nations. Recent August developments, such as expanded land-based cooperation against designated terrorist organizations and warnings issued near Mexico, have not escalated to offensive campaigns aimed at establishing U.S. control. Traders appear to view these measures, along with ongoing regional elections and bilateral engagements, as unlikely to produce a qualifying invasion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$269,867วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 88.5% implied probability for “No” reflects the absence of additional U.S. military actions to seize or control territory in Latin America since the January 2026 targeted strike in Venezuela that removed Nicolás Maduro. Current policy under the Trump administration centers on joint counter-cartel operations with partners including Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, and Honduras, alongside sanctions, fuel blockades, and diplomatic pressure on Cuba and other nations. Recent August developments, such as expanded land-based cooperation against designated terrorist organizations and warnings issued near Mexico, have not escalated to offensive campaigns aimed at establishing U.S. control. Traders appear to view these measures, along with ongoing regional elections and bilateral engagements, as unlikely to produce a qualifying invasion before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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