The Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated resilience through leadership succession, military conflicts, and domestic unrest earlier in 2026, including the rapid appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader after Ali Khamenei's death and limited evidence of security force defections. Recent economic strains, including a record-low rial and intensified U.S. sanctions pressure, have fueled discontent and sporadic protests but have not produced coordinated challenges capable of toppling the system within the narrow window to September 30. IRGC consolidation and nationalist responses have further reinforced institutional cohesion. Trader consensus at 98.6% reflects this track record of survival under acute stress. Sudden elite fractures, large-scale defections, or an unforeseen escalation could still alter trajectories, though such shifts remain low-probability events in the immediate term.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
1% โอกาส
$1,755,963 ปริมาณ
$1,755,963 ปริมาณ
Sep 29, 2026
1% โอกาส
$1,755,963 ปริมาณ
$1,755,963 ปริมาณ
Sep 29, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated resilience through leadership succession, military conflicts, and domestic unrest earlier in 2026, including the rapid appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader after Ali Khamenei's death and limited evidence of security force defections. Recent economic strains, including a record-low rial and intensified U.S. sanctions pressure, have fueled discontent and sporadic protests but have not produced coordinated challenges capable of toppling the system within the narrow window to September 30. IRGC consolidation and nationalist responses have further reinforced institutional cohesion. Trader consensus at 98.6% reflects this track record of survival under acute stress. Sudden elite fractures, large-scale defections, or an unforeseen escalation could still alter trajectories, though such shifts remain low-probability events in the immediate term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,755,963วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated resilience through leadership succession, military conflicts, and domestic unrest earlier in 2026, including the rapid appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader after Ali Khamenei's death and limited evidence of security force defections. Recent economic strains, including a record-low rial and intensified U.S. sanctions pressure, have fueled discontent and sporadic protests but have not produced coordinated challenges capable of toppling the system within the narrow window to September 30. IRGC consolidation and nationalist responses have further reinforced institutional cohesion. Trader consensus at 98.6% reflects this track record of survival under acute stress. Sudden elite fractures, large-scale defections, or an unforeseen escalation could still alter trajectories, though such shifts remain low-probability events in the immediate term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,755,963วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated resilience through leadership succession, military conflicts, and domestic unrest earlier in 2026, including the rapid appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader after Ali Khamenei's death and limited evidence of security force defections. Recent economic strains, including a record-low rial and intensified U.S. sanctions pressure, have fueled discontent and sporadic protests but have not produced coordinated challenges capable of toppling the system within the narrow window to September 30. IRGC consolidation and nationalist responses have further reinforced institutional cohesion. Trader consensus at 98.6% reflects this track record of survival under acute stress. Sudden elite fractures, large-scale defections, or an unforeseen escalation could still alter trajectories, though such shifts remain low-probability events in the immediate term.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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