Current NHC assessments show no active tropical cyclones in the eastern or central North Pacific, yet a tropical wave 1,400 miles east-southeast of Hawaii is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms with environmental conditions supportive of organization. Official guidance assigns this system a 10% formation chance through 48 hours and 70% through seven days, placing potential tropical depression development squarely within the August 14 window. A secondary wave southwest of Baja California carries a 40% seven-day probability, while broader seasonal activity remains near climatological norms for early August. These model-supported signals and the narrow resolution timeframe underpin the market-implied 59.5% odds for formation, reflecting trader weighting of near-term wave evolution against persistent disorganization. Updated NHC outlooks and model runs over the coming days will refine intensification and steering assessments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?
Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?
73% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 15, 2026
73% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 15, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current NHC assessments show no active tropical cyclones in the eastern or central North Pacific, yet a tropical wave 1,400 miles east-southeast of Hawaii is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms with environmental conditions supportive of organization. Official guidance assigns this system a 10% formation chance through 48 hours and 70% through seven days, placing potential tropical depression development squarely within the August 14 window. A secondary wave southwest of Baja California carries a 40% seven-day probability, while broader seasonal activity remains near climatological norms for early August. These model-supported signals and the narrow resolution timeframe underpin the market-implied 59.5% odds for formation, reflecting trader weighting of near-term wave evolution against persistent disorganization. Updated NHC outlooks and model runs over the coming days will refine intensification and steering assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$798วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current NHC assessments show no active tropical cyclones in the eastern or central North Pacific, yet a tropical wave 1,400 miles east-southeast of Hawaii is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms with environmental conditions supportive of organization. Official guidance assigns this system a 10% formation chance through 48 hours and 70% through seven days, placing potential tropical depression development squarely within the August 14 window. A secondary wave southwest of Baja California carries a 40% seven-day probability, while broader seasonal activity remains near climatological norms for early August. These model-supported signals and the narrow resolution timeframe underpin the market-implied 59.5% odds for formation, reflecting trader weighting of near-term wave evolution against persistent disorganization. Updated NHC outlooks and model runs over the coming days will refine intensification and steering assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$798วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Current NHC assessments show no active tropical cyclones in the eastern or central North Pacific, yet a tropical wave 1,400 miles east-southeast of Hawaii is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms with environmental conditions supportive of organization. Official guidance assigns this system a 10% formation chance through 48 hours and 70% through seven days, placing potential tropical depression development squarely within the August 14 window. A secondary wave southwest of Baja California carries a 40% seven-day probability, while broader seasonal activity remains near climatological norms for early August. These model-supported signals and the narrow resolution timeframe underpin the market-implied 59.5% odds for formation, reflecting trader weighting of near-term wave evolution against persistent disorganization. Updated NHC outlooks and model runs over the coming days will refine intensification and steering assessments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย