Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Fable 5.1 topping multiple September 2026 benchmarks like BenchAlign v5 at 84.77 with strong agentic coding and reasoning scores, drive its 62% implied probability as the frontrunner for the best AI model by end of November. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra trails at estimated scores around 83, contributing to its lower 14% odds amid partial gating and slower perceived momentum, while Google's Gemini variants and Meta's Muse Spark models sit further back in verified leaderboards. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's edge in demonstrated capabilities and release cadence since mid-2026, though the market accounts for uncertainty around new model drops, safety-related pauses, or competitive shifts from labs like Moonshot or Alibaba before November resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAnthropic 46%
Meta 26%
SpaceXAI 26%
DeepSeek 26%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
46%
Meta
26%
SpaceXAI
26%
DeepSeek
26%
Amazon
26%
Thinky
26%
MiniMax
26%
Mistral
26%
Meituan
26%
Microsoft
22%
Nvidia
16%
Xiaomi
14%
OpenAI
14%
Baidu
14%
Z.ai
14%
Tencent
14%
Alibaba
14%
ByteDance
14%
Moonshot
13%
StepFun
13%
12%
Anthropic 46%
Meta 26%
SpaceXAI 26%
DeepSeek 26%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$20 ปริมาณ
46%
Meta
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
SpaceXAI
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
DeepSeek
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
Amazon
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
Thinky
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
MiniMax
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
Mistral
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
Meituan
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
Microsoft
$0 ปริมาณ
22%
Nvidia
$0 ปริมาณ
16%
Xiaomi
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
OpenAI
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
Baidu
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
Z.ai
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
Tencent
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
Alibaba
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
ByteDance
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
Moonshot
$0 ปริมาณ
13%
StepFun
$0 ปริมาณ
13%
$20 ปริมาณ
12%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Fable 5.1 topping multiple September 2026 benchmarks like BenchAlign v5 at 84.77 with strong agentic coding and reasoning scores, drive its 62% implied probability as the frontrunner for the best AI model by end of November. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra trails at estimated scores around 83, contributing to its lower 14% odds amid partial gating and slower perceived momentum, while Google's Gemini variants and Meta's Muse Spark models sit further back in verified leaderboards. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's edge in demonstrated capabilities and release cadence since mid-2026, though the market accounts for uncertainty around new model drops, safety-related pauses, or competitive shifts from labs like Moonshot or Alibaba before November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$40วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Fable 5.1 topping multiple September 2026 benchmarks like BenchAlign v5 at 84.77 with strong agentic coding and reasoning scores, drive its 62% implied probability as the frontrunner for the best AI model by end of November. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra trails at estimated scores around 83, contributing to its lower 14% odds amid partial gating and slower perceived momentum, while Google's Gemini variants and Meta's Muse Spark models sit further back in verified leaderboards. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's edge in demonstrated capabilities and release cadence since mid-2026, though the market accounts for uncertainty around new model drops, safety-related pauses, or competitive shifts from labs like Moonshot or Alibaba before November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$40วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Fable 5.1 topping multiple September 2026 benchmarks like BenchAlign v5 at 84.77 with strong agentic coding and reasoning scores, drive its 62% implied probability as the frontrunner for the best AI model by end of November. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra trails at estimated scores around 83, contributing to its lower 14% odds amid partial gating and slower perceived momentum, while Google's Gemini variants and Meta's Muse Spark models sit further back in verified leaderboards. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's edge in demonstrated capabilities and release cadence since mid-2026, though the market accounts for uncertainty around new model drops, safety-related pauses, or competitive shifts from labs like Moonshot or Alibaba before November resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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