Trader sentiment shows a tightly contested race for the leading AI model by end of August, with Anthropic, Moonshot, Meta, Google, and OpenAI holding the highest implied probabilities around 40-46%. Competitive dynamics center on rapid iteration in large language models, where recent capability gains in reasoning, multimodal performance, and efficiency have narrowed gaps across labs. Key differentiators include benchmark leadership, safety alignments, and real-world deployment scale, with traders weighing credible reports of upcoming releases against historical timeline slips. The six-week window leaves room for last-minute model updates or evaluations to influence the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAnthropic 87%
Google 7.6%
Moonshot 3.9%
Alibaba 2.4%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
87%
8%
Moonshot
4%
Alibaba
2%
StepFun
2%
Baidu
2%
Amazon
2%
Xiaomi
2%
Bytedance
2%
MiniMax
2%
Tencent
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meituan
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
1%
OpenAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Anthropic 87%
Google 7.6%
Moonshot 3.9%
Alibaba 2.4%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$1,065 ปริมาณ
87%
$454 ปริมาณ
8%
Moonshot
$405 ปริมาณ
4%
Alibaba
$420 ปริมาณ
2%
StepFun
$399 ปริมาณ
2%
Baidu
$421 ปริมาณ
2%
Amazon
$451 ปริมาณ
2%
Xiaomi
$426 ปริมาณ
2%
Bytedance
$348 ปริมาณ
2%
MiniMax
$383 ปริมาณ
2%
Tencent
$496 ปริมาณ
2%
SpaceXAI
$312 ปริมาณ
1%
Meituan
$693 ปริมาณ
1%
Meta
$440 ปริมาณ
1%
DeepSeek
$471 ปริมาณ
1%
OpenAI
$379 ปริมาณ
<1%
Z.ai
$288 ปริมาณ
<1%
Microsoft
$319 ปริมาณ
<1%
Thinky
$188 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mistral
$188 ปริมาณ
<1%
Nvidia
$239 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment shows a tightly contested race for the leading AI model by end of August, with Anthropic, Moonshot, Meta, Google, and OpenAI holding the highest implied probabilities around 40-46%. Competitive dynamics center on rapid iteration in large language models, where recent capability gains in reasoning, multimodal performance, and efficiency have narrowed gaps across labs. Key differentiators include benchmark leadership, safety alignments, and real-world deployment scale, with traders weighing credible reports of upcoming releases against historical timeline slips. The six-week window leaves room for last-minute model updates or evaluations to influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,785วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment shows a tightly contested race for the leading AI model by end of August, with Anthropic, Moonshot, Meta, Google, and OpenAI holding the highest implied probabilities around 40-46%. Competitive dynamics center on rapid iteration in large language models, where recent capability gains in reasoning, multimodal performance, and efficiency have narrowed gaps across labs. Key differentiators include benchmark leadership, safety alignments, and real-world deployment scale, with traders weighing credible reports of upcoming releases against historical timeline slips. The six-week window leaves room for last-minute model updates or evaluations to influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,785วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment shows a tightly contested race for the leading AI model by end of August, with Anthropic, Moonshot, Meta, Google, and OpenAI holding the highest implied probabilities around 40-46%. Competitive dynamics center on rapid iteration in large language models, where recent capability gains in reasoning, multimodal performance, and efficiency have narrowed gaps across labs. Key differentiators include benchmark leadership, safety alignments, and real-world deployment scale, with traders weighing credible reports of upcoming releases against historical timeline slips. The six-week window leaves room for last-minute model updates or evaluations to influence the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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