**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature in the low-to-mid 60s°F for New York City on September 14, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 64-65°F outcome at 34.5% implied probability.** Recent model guidance, including GFS-based runs, shows a transition to mostly clear or partly cloudy skies overnight into September 14 after earlier showers, with northwest winds of 8–12 mph promoting moderate radiative cooling under building high pressure. This setup favors overnight lows around 63–65°F at Central Park or LaGuardia, consistent with climatological normals near 62°F for mid-September but tempered by residual moisture and light winds preventing deeper cooling. The near-even split with the 66–67°F bin (30.5%) reflects minor model spread on cloud cover timing, dewpoint depression, and exact wind speeds—factors that can shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Stronger northerly flow or earlier clearing would support the lower end, while lingering clouds or a slower wind shift could hold temperatures closer to 66°F. With resolution imminent, updated NWS or NOAA short-range guidance on September 13 evening or early September 14 will likely narrow the range further, as traders weigh these variables against historical September minimum variability.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in NYC on September 14?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 14?
66-67°F 36%
64-65°F 34%
62-63°F 14%
68-69°F 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 14, 2026
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
34%
66-67°F
36%
68-69°F
13%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
<1%
76°F or higher
<1%
66-67°F 36%
64-65°F 34%
62-63°F 14%
68-69°F 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 14, 2026
57°F or below
$109 ปริมาณ
1%
58-59°F
$102 ปริมาณ
<1%
60-61°F
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
62-63°F
$580 ปริมาณ
14%
64-65°F
$656 ปริมาณ
34%
66-67°F
$1,245 ปริมาณ
36%
68-69°F
$118 ปริมาณ
13%
70-71°F
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
72-73°F
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
74-75°F
$102 ปริมาณ
<1%
76°F or higher
$102 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature in the low-to-mid 60s°F for New York City on September 14, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 64-65°F outcome at 34.5% implied probability.**
Recent model guidance, including GFS-based runs, shows a transition to mostly clear or partly cloudy skies overnight into September 14 after earlier showers, with northwest winds of 8–12 mph promoting moderate radiative cooling under building high pressure. This setup favors overnight lows around 63–65°F at Central Park or LaGuardia, consistent with climatological normals near 62°F for mid-September but tempered by residual moisture and light winds preventing deeper cooling.
The near-even split with the 66–67°F bin (30.5%) reflects minor model spread on cloud cover timing, dewpoint depression, and exact wind speeds—factors that can shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Stronger northerly flow or earlier clearing would support the lower end, while lingering clouds or a slower wind shift could hold temperatures closer to 66°F. With resolution imminent, updated NWS or NOAA short-range guidance on September 13 evening or early September 14 will likely narrow the range further, as traders weigh these variables against historical September minimum variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,015วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature in the low-to-mid 60s°F for New York City on September 14, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 64-65°F outcome at 34.5% implied probability.**
Recent model guidance, including GFS-based runs, shows a transition to mostly clear or partly cloudy skies overnight into September 14 after earlier showers, with northwest winds of 8–12 mph promoting moderate radiative cooling under building high pressure. This setup favors overnight lows around 63–65°F at Central Park or LaGuardia, consistent with climatological normals near 62°F for mid-September but tempered by residual moisture and light winds preventing deeper cooling.
The near-even split with the 66–67°F bin (30.5%) reflects minor model spread on cloud cover timing, dewpoint depression, and exact wind speeds—factors that can shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Stronger northerly flow or earlier clearing would support the lower end, while lingering clouds or a slower wind shift could hold temperatures closer to 66°F. With resolution imminent, updated NWS or NOAA short-range guidance on September 13 evening or early September 14 will likely narrow the range further, as traders weigh these variables against historical September minimum variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,015วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature in the low-to-mid 60s°F for New York City on September 14, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 64-65°F outcome at 34.5% implied probability.** Recent model guidance, including GFS-based runs, shows a transition to mostly clear or partly cloudy skies overnight into September 14 after earlier showers, with northwest winds of 8–12 mph promoting moderate radiative cooling under building high pressure. This setup favors overnight lows around 63–65°F at Central Park or LaGuardia, consistent with climatological normals near 62°F for mid-September but tempered by residual moisture and light winds preventing deeper cooling. The near-even split with the 66–67°F bin (30.5%) reflects minor model spread on cloud cover timing, dewpoint depression, and exact wind speeds—factors that can shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Stronger northerly flow or earlier clearing would support the lower end, while lingering clouds or a slower wind shift could hold temperatures closer to 66°F. With resolution imminent, updated NWS or NOAA short-range guidance on September 13 evening or early September 14 will likely narrow the range further, as traders weigh these variables against historical September minimum variability.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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