Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF places Moscow's September 21 minimum near 12–14 °C under southerly flow, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Ensemble spreads remain wide because small shifts in low-level moisture or wind direction can alter the overnight low by 2–4 °C, keeping probabilities for sub-10 °C and mid-teens outcomes closely matched. Historical September minima average 8–10 °C, but the current mild advection supports the market's balanced pricing around the 10–14 °C thresholds. Updated 00Z and 12Z runs on September 20 will narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Moscow on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 21?
8°C or below 100%
18°C or higher 100%
9°C 40%
10°C 40%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 21, 2026
8°C or below
100%
9°C
40%
10°C
40%
11°C
40%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
30%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
40%
18°C or higher
100%
8°C or below 100%
18°C or higher 100%
9°C 40%
10°C 40%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 21, 2026
8°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
100%
9°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
10°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
11°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
12°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
13°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
14°C
$0 ปริมาณ
30%
15°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
16°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
17°C
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
18°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF places Moscow's September 21 minimum near 12–14 °C under southerly flow, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Ensemble spreads remain wide because small shifts in low-level moisture or wind direction can alter the overnight low by 2–4 °C, keeping probabilities for sub-10 °C and mid-teens outcomes closely matched. Historical September minima average 8–10 °C, but the current mild advection supports the market's balanced pricing around the 10–14 °C thresholds. Updated 00Z and 12Z runs on September 20 will narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 19, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 19, 2026, 12:31 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF places Moscow's September 21 minimum near 12–14 °C under southerly flow, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Ensemble spreads remain wide because small shifts in low-level moisture or wind direction can alter the overnight low by 2–4 °C, keeping probabilities for sub-10 °C and mid-teens outcomes closely matched. Historical September minima average 8–10 °C, but the current mild advection supports the market's balanced pricing around the 10–14 °C thresholds. Updated 00Z and 12Z runs on September 20 will narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 19, 2026, 12:31 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF places Moscow's September 21 minimum near 12–14 °C under southerly flow, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Ensemble spreads remain wide because small shifts in low-level moisture or wind direction can alter the overnight low by 2–4 °C, keeping probabilities for sub-10 °C and mid-teens outcomes closely matched. Historical September minima average 8–10 °C, but the current mild advection supports the market's balanced pricing around the 10–14 °C thresholds. Updated 00Z and 12Z runs on September 20 will narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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