Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for coastal Los Angeles points to a moderate marine layer and persistent onshore flow limiting daytime heating on August 14, keeping the official high most likely in the mid- to upper-70s. This pattern aligns with typical late-summer climatology when the sea breeze and low-level stratus suppress temperatures below inland valleys, producing the market’s heavy weighting toward the 76–77 °F bin. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with only modest upside risk if the marine layer erodes earlier than expected. Traders are therefore assigning lower probability to both cooler outcomes below 74 °F and warmer readings above 78 °F until the next model cycle or morning sounding confirms the boundary-layer depth.