Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy and core goods pressures from supply shocks, remains the dominant factor shaping FOMC policy expectations for the July, September, and October 2026 meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed 9-3 amid three hawkish dissents, reflecting a divided Committee that nonetheless prioritized incoming data over immediate tightening despite core PCE readings near 3.3–3.4%. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment around 4.2% and modest payroll gains, have supported the case for patience, though markets continue to assign meaningful odds to rate increases if inflation fails to moderate. This backdrop explains the 63.5% probability on “Other” outcomes versus 35% for three consecutive pauses, with the September 15–16 meeting serving as the next key catalyst alongside fresh inflation and employment releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Other 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$747,243 ปริมาณ
$747,243 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
64%
Other 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$747,243 ปริมาณ
$747,243 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$250,242 ปริมาณ
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,459 ปริมาณ
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,317 ปริมาณ
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 ปริมาณ
<1%
Other
$319,434 ปริมาณ
64%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy and core goods pressures from supply shocks, remains the dominant factor shaping FOMC policy expectations for the July, September, and October 2026 meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed 9-3 amid three hawkish dissents, reflecting a divided Committee that nonetheless prioritized incoming data over immediate tightening despite core PCE readings near 3.3–3.4%. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment around 4.2% and modest payroll gains, have supported the case for patience, though markets continue to assign meaningful odds to rate increases if inflation fails to moderate. This backdrop explains the 63.5% probability on “Other” outcomes versus 35% for three consecutive pauses, with the September 15–16 meeting serving as the next key catalyst alongside fresh inflation and employment releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$747,243วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy and core goods pressures from supply shocks, remains the dominant factor shaping FOMC policy expectations for the July, September, and October 2026 meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed 9-3 amid three hawkish dissents, reflecting a divided Committee that nonetheless prioritized incoming data over immediate tightening despite core PCE readings near 3.3–3.4%. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment around 4.2% and modest payroll gains, have supported the case for patience, though markets continue to assign meaningful odds to rate increases if inflation fails to moderate. This backdrop explains the 63.5% probability on “Other” outcomes versus 35% for three consecutive pauses, with the September 15–16 meeting serving as the next key catalyst alongside fresh inflation and employment releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$747,243วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy and core goods pressures from supply shocks, remains the dominant factor shaping FOMC policy expectations for the July, September, and October 2026 meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed 9-3 amid three hawkish dissents, reflecting a divided Committee that nonetheless prioritized incoming data over immediate tightening despite core PCE readings near 3.3–3.4%. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment around 4.2% and modest payroll gains, have supported the case for patience, though markets continue to assign meaningful odds to rate increases if inflation fails to moderate. This backdrop explains the 63.5% probability on “Other” outcomes versus 35% for three consecutive pauses, with the September 15–16 meeting serving as the next key catalyst alongside fresh inflation and employment releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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