**Claude Fable 5.1's recent launch positions it as the clear leader in trader sentiment for the September 21 "best AI model" market.** Anthropic released Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, delivering substantial gains in agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and research benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0 (55.8%) and BenchAlign v5, where it scores 82.95—well ahead of Claude Opus 5 and recent OpenAI releases like GPT-6 Astra. This fresh evidence of frontier capability at the high/max effort settings explains the 56.5% implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max, while the 41% on "Other" reflects uncertainty around competing models and potential last-minute updates before resolution. Opus variants remain low-probability given their July positioning and the new model's superior verified results. With the evaluation date only weeks away, traders are weighting the latest benchmark leadership heavily.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วclaude-fable-5.1-max 57%
Other 40%
claude-opus-5-high 3.5%
claude-opus-5-max 2.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 21, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
57%
Other
34%
claude-opus-5-high
4%
claude-opus-5-max
2%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 57%
Other 40%
claude-opus-5-high 3.5%
claude-opus-5-max 2.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 21, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
$2,746 ปริมาณ
57%
Other
$2,234 ปริมาณ
34%
claude-opus-5-high
$128 ปริมาณ
4%
claude-opus-5-max
$347 ปริมาณ
2%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$237 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Claude Fable 5.1's recent launch positions it as the clear leader in trader sentiment for the September 21 "best AI model" market.** Anthropic released Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, delivering substantial gains in agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and research benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0 (55.8%) and BenchAlign v5, where it scores 82.95—well ahead of Claude Opus 5 and recent OpenAI releases like GPT-6 Astra. This fresh evidence of frontier capability at the high/max effort settings explains the 56.5% implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max, while the 41% on "Other" reflects uncertainty around competing models and potential last-minute updates before resolution. Opus variants remain low-probability given their July positioning and the new model's superior verified results. With the evaluation date only weeks away, traders are weighting the latest benchmark leadership heavily.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,692วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Claude Fable 5.1's recent launch positions it as the clear leader in trader sentiment for the September 21 "best AI model" market.** Anthropic released Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, delivering substantial gains in agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and research benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0 (55.8%) and BenchAlign v5, where it scores 82.95—well ahead of Claude Opus 5 and recent OpenAI releases like GPT-6 Astra. This fresh evidence of frontier capability at the high/max effort settings explains the 56.5% implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max, while the 41% on "Other" reflects uncertainty around competing models and potential last-minute updates before resolution. Opus variants remain low-probability given their July positioning and the new model's superior verified results. With the evaluation date only weeks away, traders are weighting the latest benchmark leadership heavily.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,692วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Claude Fable 5.1's recent launch positions it as the clear leader in trader sentiment for the September 21 "best AI model" market.** Anthropic released Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1, delivering substantial gains in agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and research benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0 (55.8%) and BenchAlign v5, where it scores 82.95—well ahead of Claude Opus 5 and recent OpenAI releases like GPT-6 Astra. This fresh evidence of frontier capability at the high/max effort settings explains the 56.5% implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max, while the 41% on "Other" reflects uncertainty around competing models and potential last-minute updates before resolution. Opus variants remain low-probability given their July positioning and the new model's superior verified results. With the evaluation date only weeks away, traders are weighting the latest benchmark leadership heavily.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย