**The recent September 1 launch of Claude Fable 5.1 drives the 61.5% market-implied odds for claude-fable-5.1-max.** Anthropic positioned the update as its most capable model yet for coding, knowledge work, and agentic tasks, with leading scores on independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. This fresh release, following Fable 5 in June and Opus 5 in July, has shifted trader consensus toward the newest Anthropic variant ahead of the September 14 resolution. The 27.5% on “Other” reflects uncertainty around potential competitive gains from models like GPT-6 variants or undisclosed internal progress at other labs, while the low-single-digit odds on Opus 5 variants align with their confirmed positioning behind the Mythos-class tier. With only nine days remaining, near-term benchmark updates or capability demonstrations could still influence final trader sentiment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วclaude-fable-5.1-max 65%
Other 34%
claude-opus-5-max 1.7%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 14, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
65%
Other
34%
claude-opus-5-max
2%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
<1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 65%
Other 34%
claude-opus-5-max 1.7%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 14, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
$3,398 ปริมาณ
65%
Other
$3,487 ปริมาณ
34%
claude-opus-5-max
$112 ปริมาณ
2%
claude-opus-5-high
$131 ปริมาณ
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$244 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**The recent September 1 launch of Claude Fable 5.1 drives the 61.5% market-implied odds for claude-fable-5.1-max.** Anthropic positioned the update as its most capable model yet for coding, knowledge work, and agentic tasks, with leading scores on independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. This fresh release, following Fable 5 in June and Opus 5 in July, has shifted trader consensus toward the newest Anthropic variant ahead of the September 14 resolution. The 27.5% on “Other” reflects uncertainty around potential competitive gains from models like GPT-6 variants or undisclosed internal progress at other labs, while the low-single-digit odds on Opus 5 variants align with their confirmed positioning behind the Mythos-class tier. With only nine days remaining, near-term benchmark updates or capability demonstrations could still influence final trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,373วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**The recent September 1 launch of Claude Fable 5.1 drives the 61.5% market-implied odds for claude-fable-5.1-max.** Anthropic positioned the update as its most capable model yet for coding, knowledge work, and agentic tasks, with leading scores on independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. This fresh release, following Fable 5 in June and Opus 5 in July, has shifted trader consensus toward the newest Anthropic variant ahead of the September 14 resolution. The 27.5% on “Other” reflects uncertainty around potential competitive gains from models like GPT-6 variants or undisclosed internal progress at other labs, while the low-single-digit odds on Opus 5 variants align with their confirmed positioning behind the Mythos-class tier. With only nine days remaining, near-term benchmark updates or capability demonstrations could still influence final trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,373วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**The recent September 1 launch of Claude Fable 5.1 drives the 61.5% market-implied odds for claude-fable-5.1-max.** Anthropic positioned the update as its most capable model yet for coding, knowledge work, and agentic tasks, with leading scores on independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. This fresh release, following Fable 5 in June and Opus 5 in July, has shifted trader consensus toward the newest Anthropic variant ahead of the September 14 resolution. The 27.5% on “Other” reflects uncertainty around potential competitive gains from models like GPT-6 variants or undisclosed internal progress at other labs, while the low-single-digit odds on Opus 5 variants align with their confirmed positioning behind the Mythos-class tier. With only nine days remaining, near-term benchmark updates or capability demonstrations could still influence final trader sentiment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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