**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 55.5% reflects the 60% supermajority threshold for constitutional amendments amid mixed polling and fiscal concerns.** The measure, placed on the November 2026 ballot via special legislative session in June, would raise the non-school homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, index it to inflation later, cap non-homestead assessment growth at 5%, impose a five-year residency wait for new residents, and restrict local property-tax revenue to core services. Early polls using the original language showed support near or above 60%, but a University of North Florida survey found backing falling to 45% when highlighting an estimated $11.8 billion local revenue shortfall over two years. A court-ordered August rewrite replaced the original title and summary with neutral phrasing, removing persuasive elements. Local governments have highlighted service impacts, while partisan divides persist with stronger Republican backing. These factors, combined with the high bar for passage, underpin current market pricing.