Recent national polls for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading with 36–43% support and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 30–37%, while remaining candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register in single digits. The fragmented field has kept every major survey well below the 50% threshold required for an outright win. Second-round simulations between the top two remain statistically tied or narrowly split, consistent with Brazil’s post-2002 pattern in which every presidential contest has advanced to a runoff. No recent polling movement, candidate withdrawal, or institutional development has altered this distribution enough to shift the low probability of a first-round majority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
6% вероятность
$258,929 Объем
$258,929 Объем
3 окт. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
$258,929 Объем
$258,929 Объем
3 окт. 2026 г.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading with 36–43% support and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 30–37%, while remaining candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register in single digits. The fragmented field has kept every major survey well below the 50% threshold required for an outright win. Second-round simulations between the top two remain statistically tied or narrowly split, consistent with Brazil’s post-2002 pattern in which every presidential contest has advanced to a runoff. No recent polling movement, candidate withdrawal, or institutional development has altered this distribution enough to shift the low probability of a first-round majority.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Объем
$258,929Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading with 36–43% support and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 30–37%, while remaining candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register in single digits. The fragmented field has kept every major survey well below the 50% threshold required for an outright win. Second-round simulations between the top two remain statistically tied or narrowly split, consistent with Brazil’s post-2002 pattern in which every presidential contest has advanced to a runoff. No recent polling movement, candidate withdrawal, or institutional development has altered this distribution enough to shift the low probability of a first-round majority.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$258,929Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent national polls for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading with 36–43% support and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 30–37%, while remaining candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register in single digits. The fragmented field has kept every major survey well below the 50% threshold required for an outright win. Second-round simulations between the top two remain statistically tied or narrowly split, consistent with Brazil’s post-2002 pattern in which every presidential contest has advanced to a runoff. No recent polling movement, candidate withdrawal, or institutional development has altered this distribution enough to shift the low probability of a first-round majority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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