Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies recently exceeding +1.8°C and forecasts indicating a very strong event peaking later in 2026, are the dominant factor elevating September temperatures. This builds on record-high global ocean heat content and the lingering effects of prior warm years, positioning September 2026 for a likely top-three ranking among historical Septembers. The lagged global temperature response to ENSO means the full impact will intensify toward year-end, though model consensus and recent monthly data show September itself benefiting from already elevated baselines rather than peak El Niño forcing. Trader sentiment reflects this trajectory, tempered by uncertainty in exact ranking due to dataset variations and potential short-term variability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1, 2 или 3 сентября 2026 года - самые жаркие за всю историю наблюдений?
1, 2 или 3 сентября 2026 года - самые жаркие за всю историю наблюдений?
Второй самый жаркий 82%
Самый тёплый 36%
Четвертое или ниже 30%
Третий по жаре 29%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
Самый тёплый
36%
Второй самый жаркий
57%
Третий по жаре
29%
Четвертое или ниже
30%
Второй самый жаркий 82%
Самый тёплый 36%
Четвертое или ниже 30%
Третий по жаре 29%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
Самый тёплый
$273 Объем
36%
Второй самый жаркий
$1 Объем
57%
Третий по жаре
$0 Объем
29%
Четвертое или ниже
$250 Объем
30%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies recently exceeding +1.8°C and forecasts indicating a very strong event peaking later in 2026, are the dominant factor elevating September temperatures. This builds on record-high global ocean heat content and the lingering effects of prior warm years, positioning September 2026 for a likely top-three ranking among historical Septembers. The lagged global temperature response to ENSO means the full impact will intensify toward year-end, though model consensus and recent monthly data show September itself benefiting from already elevated baselines rather than peak El Niño forcing. Trader sentiment reflects this trajectory, tempered by uncertainty in exact ranking due to dataset variations and potential short-term variability.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Открытие рынка: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Объем
$525Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies recently exceeding +1.8°C and forecasts indicating a very strong event peaking later in 2026, are the dominant factor elevating September temperatures. This builds on record-high global ocean heat content and the lingering effects of prior warm years, positioning September 2026 for a likely top-three ranking among historical Septembers. The lagged global temperature response to ENSO means the full impact will intensify toward year-end, though model consensus and recent monthly data show September itself benefiting from already elevated baselines rather than peak El Niño forcing. Trader sentiment reflects this trajectory, tempered by uncertainty in exact ranking due to dataset variations and potential short-term variability.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Объем
$525Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies recently exceeding +1.8°C and forecasts indicating a very strong event peaking later in 2026, are the dominant factor elevating September temperatures. This builds on record-high global ocean heat content and the lingering effects of prior warm years, positioning September 2026 for a likely top-three ranking among historical Septembers. The lagged global temperature response to ENSO means the full impact will intensify toward year-end, though model consensus and recent monthly data show September itself benefiting from already elevated baselines rather than peak El Niño forcing. Trader sentiment reflects this trajectory, tempered by uncertainty in exact ranking due to dataset variations and potential short-term variability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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