**With no earthquake exceeding magnitude 7.8 recorded in 2026 to date, traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities across bins from 7.9 or below through 9.0+, reflecting deep uncertainty about whether a great earthquake will strike before year-end.** Multiple 7.0–7.8 events have occurred along the Pacific Ring of Fire this year, including the Philippines M7.8 (June), recent M7.7 near Indonesia, and Colombia M7.4–7.5 (August), consistent with typical annual frequency but below the threshold for an 8+. Subduction-zone megathrust faults, which release the largest strain accumulations, remain capable of M8.0–9.0+ ruptures on short timescales, while statistical models of recurrence and current low aftershock rates in key segments introduce genuine unpredictability. Four-plus months remain, and USGS monitoring shows no anomalous precursory signals that would sharply tilt odds toward or away from an 8+ event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая магнитуда землетрясения в 2026 году?
Самая высокая магнитуда землетрясения в 2026 году?
9,0 или выше 49%
7,9 или ниже 47%
8,0 – 8,1 46%
8,4 – 8,5 46%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 янв. 2027 г.
7,9 или ниже
47%
8,0 – 8,1
46%
8,2–8,3
43%
8,4 – 8,5
46%
8,6–8,7
46%
8,8 – 8,9
46%
9,0 или выше
49%
9,0 или выше 49%
7,9 или ниже 47%
8,0 – 8,1 46%
8,4 – 8,5 46%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 янв. 2027 г.
7,9 или ниже
$0 Объем
47%
8,0 – 8,1
$0 Объем
46%
8,2–8,3
$0 Объем
43%
8,4 – 8,5
$0 Объем
46%
8,6–8,7
$0 Объем
46%
8,8 – 8,9
$0 Объем
46%
9,0 или выше
$0 Объем
49%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.**With no earthquake exceeding magnitude 7.8 recorded in 2026 to date, traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities across bins from 7.9 or below through 9.0+, reflecting deep uncertainty about whether a great earthquake will strike before year-end.**
Multiple 7.0–7.8 events have occurred along the Pacific Ring of Fire this year, including the Philippines M7.8 (June), recent M7.7 near Indonesia, and Colombia M7.4–7.5 (August), consistent with typical annual frequency but below the threshold for an 8+. Subduction-zone megathrust faults, which release the largest strain accumulations, remain capable of M8.0–9.0+ ruptures on short timescales, while statistical models of recurrence and current low aftershock rates in key segments introduce genuine unpredictability. Four-plus months remain, and USGS monitoring shows no anomalous precursory signals that would sharply tilt odds toward or away from an 8+ event.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
4 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.**With no earthquake exceeding magnitude 7.8 recorded in 2026 to date, traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities across bins from 7.9 or below through 9.0+, reflecting deep uncertainty about whether a great earthquake will strike before year-end.**
Multiple 7.0–7.8 events have occurred along the Pacific Ring of Fire this year, including the Philippines M7.8 (June), recent M7.7 near Indonesia, and Colombia M7.4–7.5 (August), consistent with typical annual frequency but below the threshold for an 8+. Subduction-zone megathrust faults, which release the largest strain accumulations, remain capable of M8.0–9.0+ ruptures on short timescales, while statistical models of recurrence and current low aftershock rates in key segments introduce genuine unpredictability. Four-plus months remain, and USGS monitoring shows no anomalous precursory signals that would sharply tilt odds toward or away from an 8+ event.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
4 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**With no earthquake exceeding magnitude 7.8 recorded in 2026 to date, traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities across bins from 7.9 or below through 9.0+, reflecting deep uncertainty about whether a great earthquake will strike before year-end.** Multiple 7.0–7.8 events have occurred along the Pacific Ring of Fire this year, including the Philippines M7.8 (June), recent M7.7 near Indonesia, and Colombia M7.4–7.5 (August), consistent with typical annual frequency but below the threshold for an 8+. Subduction-zone megathrust faults, which release the largest strain accumulations, remain capable of M8.0–9.0+ ruptures on short timescales, while statistical models of recurrence and current low aftershock rates in key segments introduce genuine unpredictability. Four-plus months remain, and USGS monitoring shows no anomalous precursory signals that would sharply tilt odds toward or away from an 8+ event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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