NOAA’s August 2026 update reinforces expectations for a below-normal Atlantic season, forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) amid elevated wind shear tied to evolving El Niño conditions and only three tropical storms formed to date. Colorado State University and other models assign roughly 16–20% odds of any major-hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coast—well below the long-term average—reflecting suppressed intensification potential and steering patterns that limit coastal threats. With peak season still ahead but activity running far behind climatology, traders see limited scope for a Category 4 system to reach Saffir-Simpson thresholds and make U.S. landfall before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли какой-либо ураган категории 4 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Будет ли какой-либо ураган категории 4 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Да
16% вероятность
$340,152 Объем
$340,152 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
16% вероятность
$340,152 Объем
$340,152 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update reinforces expectations for a below-normal Atlantic season, forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) amid elevated wind shear tied to evolving El Niño conditions and only three tropical storms formed to date. Colorado State University and other models assign roughly 16–20% odds of any major-hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coast—well below the long-term average—reflecting suppressed intensification potential and steering patterns that limit coastal threats. With peak season still ahead but activity running far behind climatology, traders see limited scope for a Category 4 system to reach Saffir-Simpson thresholds and make U.S. landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Открытие рынка: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Объем
$340,152Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update reinforces expectations for a below-normal Atlantic season, forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) amid elevated wind shear tied to evolving El Niño conditions and only three tropical storms formed to date. Colorado State University and other models assign roughly 16–20% odds of any major-hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coast—well below the long-term average—reflecting suppressed intensification potential and steering patterns that limit coastal threats. With peak season still ahead but activity running far behind climatology, traders see limited scope for a Category 4 system to reach Saffir-Simpson thresholds and make U.S. landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Объем
$340,152Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s August 2026 update reinforces expectations for a below-normal Atlantic season, forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) amid elevated wind shear tied to evolving El Niño conditions and only three tropical storms formed to date. Colorado State University and other models assign roughly 16–20% odds of any major-hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coast—well below the long-term average—reflecting suppressed intensification potential and steering patterns that limit coastal threats. With peak season still ahead but activity running far behind climatology, traders see limited scope for a Category 4 system to reach Saffir-Simpson thresholds and make U.S. landfall before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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