Recent low sea ice extents through mid-August 2026, including a July average of 8.29 million square kilometers (joint fifth-lowest on record) and daily values near 6.6–7.0 million square kilometers, have positioned the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin as the market favorite for the September minimum. Persistent Arctic amplification from elevated ocean and air temperatures, combined with a record-low 2026 winter maximum tied at 14.29 million square kilometers, has accelerated melt, particularly on the Atlantic side where Kara, Barents, and Greenland Sea extents rank among the lowest observed. Model consensus from spring forecasts projected a mid-September minimum near 4.49 million square kilometers, consistent with 2025 outcomes and the long-term decline trend of roughly 12 percent per decade, though regional thickness variations and late-summer weather patterns introduce remaining uncertainty ahead of peak melt.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?
Мин. площадь арктического морского льда этим летом?
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км 27.6%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км 19.5%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км 15.9%
<4 млн кв км 12%
$68,052 Объем
$68,052 Объем
1 окт. 2026 г.
<4 млн кв км
12%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км
6%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км
16%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км
44%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км
20%
4,8–5 млн кв. км
6%
5+ млн кв. км
2%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км 27.6%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км 19.5%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км 15.9%
<4 млн кв км 12%
$68,052 Объем
$68,052 Объем
1 окт. 2026 г.
<4 млн кв км
$30,481 Объем
12%
4,0–4,2 млн кв. км
$6,592 Объем
6%
4,2-4,4 млн кв. км
$3,097 Объем
16%
4,4-4,6 млн кв. км
$3,128 Объем
44%
4,6–4,8 млн кв. км
$6,805 Объем
20%
4,8–5 млн кв. км
$3,475 Объем
6%
5+ млн кв. км
$14,474 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low sea ice extents through mid-August 2026, including a July average of 8.29 million square kilometers (joint fifth-lowest on record) and daily values near 6.6–7.0 million square kilometers, have positioned the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin as the market favorite for the September minimum. Persistent Arctic amplification from elevated ocean and air temperatures, combined with a record-low 2026 winter maximum tied at 14.29 million square kilometers, has accelerated melt, particularly on the Atlantic side where Kara, Barents, and Greenland Sea extents rank among the lowest observed. Model consensus from spring forecasts projected a mid-September minimum near 4.49 million square kilometers, consistent with 2025 outcomes and the long-term decline trend of roughly 12 percent per decade, though regional thickness variations and late-summer weather patterns introduce remaining uncertainty ahead of peak melt.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Объем
$68,052Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low sea ice extents through mid-August 2026, including a July average of 8.29 million square kilometers (joint fifth-lowest on record) and daily values near 6.6–7.0 million square kilometers, have positioned the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin as the market favorite for the September minimum. Persistent Arctic amplification from elevated ocean and air temperatures, combined with a record-low 2026 winter maximum tied at 14.29 million square kilometers, has accelerated melt, particularly on the Atlantic side where Kara, Barents, and Greenland Sea extents rank among the lowest observed. Model consensus from spring forecasts projected a mid-September minimum near 4.49 million square kilometers, consistent with 2025 outcomes and the long-term decline trend of roughly 12 percent per decade, though regional thickness variations and late-summer weather patterns introduce remaining uncertainty ahead of peak melt.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$68,052Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low sea ice extents through mid-August 2026, including a July average of 8.29 million square kilometers (joint fifth-lowest on record) and daily values near 6.6–7.0 million square kilometers, have positioned the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin as the market favorite for the September minimum. Persistent Arctic amplification from elevated ocean and air temperatures, combined with a record-low 2026 winter maximum tied at 14.29 million square kilometers, has accelerated melt, particularly on the Atlantic side where Kara, Barents, and Greenland Sea extents rank among the lowest observed. Model consensus from spring forecasts projected a mid-September minimum near 4.49 million square kilometers, consistent with 2025 outcomes and the long-term decline trend of roughly 12 percent per decade, though regional thickness variations and late-summer weather patterns introduce remaining uncertainty ahead of peak melt.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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