Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS shows typical background rates of one to two magnitude 6.5+ events per week globally, concentrated along subduction zones such as the Japan Trench, Philippine Sea plate boundary, and Kermadec arc, where recent analogs include the M6.8 Kumamoto event in late July and M6.3 quakes in early August. A M7.4 event in Colombia on August 10 highlights elevated activity in the Pacific Ring of Fire, though earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable beyond long-term probabilistic hazard maps. With roughly 19 days remaining until market resolution, traders weigh the likelihood of additional M6+ shocks in high-strain regions against the low probability of none occurring, informed by daily USGS catalog updates and the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences exceeding thresholds. Model consensus supports continued activity consistent with historical patterns rather than anomalous clustering.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоГде землетрясение силой 6,0 + произойдет к концу августа?
Где землетрясение силой 6,0 + произойдет к концу августа?
НОВОЕ
3 сент. 2026 г.
Япония
65%
Соединенные Штаты
22%
Чили
18%
Мексика
16%
Индонезия
50%
Филиппины
60%
$1,652 Объем
Япония
$193 Объем
65%
Соединенные Штаты
$473 Объем
22%
Чили
$96 Объем
18%
Мексика
$315 Объем
16%
Индонезия
$257 Объем
50%
Филиппины
$318 Объем
60%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS shows typical background rates of one to two magnitude 6.5+ events per week globally, concentrated along subduction zones such as the Japan Trench, Philippine Sea plate boundary, and Kermadec arc, where recent analogs include the M6.8 Kumamoto event in late July and M6.3 quakes in early August. A M7.4 event in Colombia on August 10 highlights elevated activity in the Pacific Ring of Fire, though earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable beyond long-term probabilistic hazard maps. With roughly 19 days remaining until market resolution, traders weigh the likelihood of additional M6+ shocks in high-strain regions against the low probability of none occurring, informed by daily USGS catalog updates and the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences exceeding thresholds. Model consensus supports continued activity consistent with historical patterns rather than anomalous clustering.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Объем
$1,652Дата окончания
3 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS shows typical background rates of one to two magnitude 6.5+ events per week globally, concentrated along subduction zones such as the Japan Trench, Philippine Sea plate boundary, and Kermadec arc, where recent analogs include the M6.8 Kumamoto event in late July and M6.3 quakes in early August. A M7.4 event in Colombia on August 10 highlights elevated activity in the Pacific Ring of Fire, though earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable beyond long-term probabilistic hazard maps. With roughly 19 days remaining until market resolution, traders weigh the likelihood of additional M6+ shocks in high-strain regions against the low probability of none occurring, informed by daily USGS catalog updates and the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences exceeding thresholds. Model consensus supports continued activity consistent with historical patterns rather than anomalous clustering.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Объем
$1,652Дата окончания
3 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS shows typical background rates of one to two magnitude 6.5+ events per week globally, concentrated along subduction zones such as the Japan Trench, Philippine Sea plate boundary, and Kermadec arc, where recent analogs include the M6.8 Kumamoto event in late July and M6.3 quakes in early August. A M7.4 event in Colombia on August 10 highlights elevated activity in the Pacific Ring of Fire, though earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable beyond long-term probabilistic hazard maps. With roughly 19 days remaining until market resolution, traders weigh the likelihood of additional M6+ shocks in high-strain regions against the low probability of none occurring, informed by daily USGS catalog updates and the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences exceeding thresholds. Model consensus supports continued activity consistent with historical patterns rather than anomalous clustering.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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