Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino holds a dominant position in New York’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party an 87% implied probability of retaining the seat. The South Shore Long Island district has trended Republican in recent cycles, reflected in Garbarino’s 2024 re-election margin and consistent “Solid R” or “Likely R” ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Garbarino advanced unopposed after the June 2026 Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat Patrick Halpin secured his party’s nomination. Limited competitive polling and fundraising data, combined with the district’s partisan voting index, have kept Democratic chances low at 13%. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted this positioning ahead of the November vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNY-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NY-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$17,563 Объем
$17,563 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
87%
Демократическая партия
13%
$17,563 Объем
$17,563 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$7,102 Объем
87%
Демократическая партия
$10,461 Объем
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino holds a dominant position in New York’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party an 87% implied probability of retaining the seat. The South Shore Long Island district has trended Republican in recent cycles, reflected in Garbarino’s 2024 re-election margin and consistent “Solid R” or “Likely R” ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Garbarino advanced unopposed after the June 2026 Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat Patrick Halpin secured his party’s nomination. Limited competitive polling and fundraising data, combined with the district’s partisan voting index, have kept Democratic chances low at 13%. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted this positioning ahead of the November vote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Объем
$17,563Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino holds a dominant position in New York’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party an 87% implied probability of retaining the seat. The South Shore Long Island district has trended Republican in recent cycles, reflected in Garbarino’s 2024 re-election margin and consistent “Solid R” or “Likely R” ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Garbarino advanced unopposed after the June 2026 Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat Patrick Halpin secured his party’s nomination. Limited competitive polling and fundraising data, combined with the district’s partisan voting index, have kept Democratic chances low at 13%. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted this positioning ahead of the November vote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$17,563Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino holds a dominant position in New York’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party an 87% implied probability of retaining the seat. The South Shore Long Island district has trended Republican in recent cycles, reflected in Garbarino’s 2024 re-election margin and consistent “Solid R” or “Likely R” ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Garbarino advanced unopposed after the June 2026 Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat Patrick Halpin secured his party’s nomination. Limited competitive polling and fundraising data, combined with the district’s partisan voting index, have kept Democratic chances low at 13%. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted this positioning ahead of the November vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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