Recent polling averages place National and Labour nearly tied in party vote support near 30 percent each ahead of the November 7, 2026 election, with the National-led coalition holding a narrow edge over the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc in most aggregates. This tight contest between the two largest parties drives the elevated probabilities for one finishing immediately behind the other, while smaller parties remain well below thresholds that would allow them to claim second place. National’s position reflects its incumbency advantages and coalition stability despite recent leadership strains and softer economic indicators, whereas Labour’s standing stems from gains among voters concerned about cost-of-living pressures. The MMP electoral system and ongoing volatility in support for minor parties such as Opportunity and New Zealand First further concentrate the second-place outcome between the major contenders, consistent with current trader consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNew Zealand Election: 2nd Place
New Zealand Election: 2nd Place
National Party 53%
Labour Party 42%
New Zealand First Party <1%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
$17,916 Объем
$17,916 Объем
7 нояб. 2026 г.
National Party
53%
Labour Party
42%
New Zealand First Party
1%
Te Pāti Māori
1%
Green Party
<1%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
National Party 53%
Labour Party 42%
New Zealand First Party <1%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
$17,916 Объем
$17,916 Объем
7 нояб. 2026 г.
National Party
$8,882 Объем
53%
Labour Party
$4,789 Объем
42%
New Zealand First Party
$1,262 Объем
1%
Te Pāti Māori
$1,199 Объем
1%
Green Party
$542 Объем
<1%
ACT New Zealand
$1,243 Объем
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place National and Labour nearly tied in party vote support near 30 percent each ahead of the November 7, 2026 election, with the National-led coalition holding a narrow edge over the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc in most aggregates. This tight contest between the two largest parties drives the elevated probabilities for one finishing immediately behind the other, while smaller parties remain well below thresholds that would allow them to claim second place. National’s position reflects its incumbency advantages and coalition stability despite recent leadership strains and softer economic indicators, whereas Labour’s standing stems from gains among voters concerned about cost-of-living pressures. The MMP electoral system and ongoing volatility in support for minor parties such as Opportunity and New Zealand First further concentrate the second-place outcome between the major contenders, consistent with current trader consensus.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Объем
$17,916Дата окончания
7 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place National and Labour nearly tied in party vote support near 30 percent each ahead of the November 7, 2026 election, with the National-led coalition holding a narrow edge over the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc in most aggregates. This tight contest between the two largest parties drives the elevated probabilities for one finishing immediately behind the other, while smaller parties remain well below thresholds that would allow them to claim second place. National’s position reflects its incumbency advantages and coalition stability despite recent leadership strains and softer economic indicators, whereas Labour’s standing stems from gains among voters concerned about cost-of-living pressures. The MMP electoral system and ongoing volatility in support for minor parties such as Opportunity and New Zealand First further concentrate the second-place outcome between the major contenders, consistent with current trader consensus.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Объем
$17,916Дата окончания
7 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place National and Labour nearly tied in party vote support near 30 percent each ahead of the November 7, 2026 election, with the National-led coalition holding a narrow edge over the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc in most aggregates. This tight contest between the two largest parties drives the elevated probabilities for one finishing immediately behind the other, while smaller parties remain well below thresholds that would allow them to claim second place. National’s position reflects its incumbency advantages and coalition stability despite recent leadership strains and softer economic indicators, whereas Labour’s standing stems from gains among voters concerned about cost-of-living pressures. The MMP electoral system and ongoing volatility in support for minor parties such as Opportunity and New Zealand First further concentrate the second-place outcome between the major contenders, consistent with current trader consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
56%
Labour
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