**Current forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources positions an overnight low near 8°C as the most probable minimum temperature for Wellington on August 31, 2026.** Numerical weather models, including those referenced by WeatherBug, Yr.no, and the Met Office, indicate daytime highs of 13–15°C under northwesterly flow transitioning to cooler southerly winds by evening, with temperatures falling to 7–8°C overnight amid increasing cloud cover and light showers. This aligns with late-winter climatology for the region, where August minima typically range 6–9°C and recent station data show a slight positive departure from the 10.3°C monthly normal. The strong market-implied probability for 8°C (89.5%) reflects trader aggregation of these consistent model outputs, while lower probabilities for 7°C (32%) or 5°C or below (28%) capture residual uncertainty in exact timing of the wind shift and any localized cooling from showers. Historical analogs and ensemble spreads support limited downside risk below 7°C under current steering patterns, keeping the distribution tightly centered around the leading outcome. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance through the evening of August 30 remain the key near-term drivers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 31 августа?
Самая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 31 августа?
8°C 90%
6°C 5%
5°C or below 2%
12°C <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
5°C or below
8%
6°C
8%
7°C
31%
8°C
90%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C или выше
<1%
8°C 90%
6°C 5%
5°C or below 2%
12°C <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
5°C or below
$80 Объем
8%
6°C
$568 Объем
8%
7°C
$55 Объем
31%
8°C
$164 Объем
90%
9°C
$278 Объем
<1%
10°C
$144 Объем
<1%
11°C
$167 Объем
<1%
12°C
$180 Объем
<1%
13°C
$20 Объем
<1%
14°C
$30 Объем
<1%
15°C или выше
$83 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources positions an overnight low near 8°C as the most probable minimum temperature for Wellington on August 31, 2026.** Numerical weather models, including those referenced by WeatherBug, Yr.no, and the Met Office, indicate daytime highs of 13–15°C under northwesterly flow transitioning to cooler southerly winds by evening, with temperatures falling to 7–8°C overnight amid increasing cloud cover and light showers. This aligns with late-winter climatology for the region, where August minima typically range 6–9°C and recent station data show a slight positive departure from the 10.3°C monthly normal.
The strong market-implied probability for 8°C (89.5%) reflects trader aggregation of these consistent model outputs, while lower probabilities for 7°C (32%) or 5°C or below (28%) capture residual uncertainty in exact timing of the wind shift and any localized cooling from showers. Historical analogs and ensemble spreads support limited downside risk below 7°C under current steering patterns, keeping the distribution tightly centered around the leading outcome. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance through the evening of August 30 remain the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Объем
$1,769Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources positions an overnight low near 8°C as the most probable minimum temperature for Wellington on August 31, 2026.** Numerical weather models, including those referenced by WeatherBug, Yr.no, and the Met Office, indicate daytime highs of 13–15°C under northwesterly flow transitioning to cooler southerly winds by evening, with temperatures falling to 7–8°C overnight amid increasing cloud cover and light showers. This aligns with late-winter climatology for the region, where August minima typically range 6–9°C and recent station data show a slight positive departure from the 10.3°C monthly normal.
The strong market-implied probability for 8°C (89.5%) reflects trader aggregation of these consistent model outputs, while lower probabilities for 7°C (32%) or 5°C or below (28%) capture residual uncertainty in exact timing of the wind shift and any localized cooling from showers. Historical analogs and ensemble spreads support limited downside risk below 7°C under current steering patterns, keeping the distribution tightly centered around the leading outcome. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance through the evening of August 30 remain the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$1,769Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources positions an overnight low near 8°C as the most probable minimum temperature for Wellington on August 31, 2026.** Numerical weather models, including those referenced by WeatherBug, Yr.no, and the Met Office, indicate daytime highs of 13–15°C under northwesterly flow transitioning to cooler southerly winds by evening, with temperatures falling to 7–8°C overnight amid increasing cloud cover and light showers. This aligns with late-winter climatology for the region, where August minima typically range 6–9°C and recent station data show a slight positive departure from the 10.3°C monthly normal. The strong market-implied probability for 8°C (89.5%) reflects trader aggregation of these consistent model outputs, while lower probabilities for 7°C (32%) or 5°C or below (28%) capture residual uncertainty in exact timing of the wind shift and any localized cooling from showers. Historical analogs and ensemble spreads support limited downside risk below 7°C under current steering patterns, keeping the distribution tightly centered around the leading outcome. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance through the evening of August 30 remain the key near-term drivers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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