Recent ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models indicate Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 24 will likely fall between 11–14°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, consistent with the market's tight clustering around the 11°C, 10°C, and 12°C bins. Clearer intervals could enhance radiative cooling and push readings toward the lower end of that range, while increased cloud cover or mild advection would support slightly higher values. The elevated probability on 7°C or below reflects residual model spread and typical late-summer variability in central Poland, where nocturnal temperature drops of several degrees remain possible. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening will provide the clearest signals before resolution.