Recent official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and global models indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on September 5 will likely fall between 10–13°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and moderate southwesterly winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Daytime highs near 17–18°C under overcast skies have already occurred, with the overnight low expected to set the daily minimum as frontal activity and high humidity suppress sharp temperature drops. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 11–13°C because ensemble model spreads and timing of peak cooling introduce genuine uncertainty in the exact recorded minimum, consistent with September climatology where average lows hover near 10°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Updated observations and any late-day model runs could refine these implied probabilities before resolution.