Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate overnight lows in Madrid of 19–21°C on September 1 under persistent high-pressure stability and clear skies, with limited radiative cooling due to warm advection from the south. This aligns with AEMET's above-normal temperature outlook for early September and historical averages near 17.8°C, making 16–18°C outcomes the market leaders at a combined ~78% implied probability while capping warmer scenarios. Short-range model consensus shows minimal precipitation or frontal influence through the period, though slight downward revisions in recent runs have sustained trader focus on the lower end of the distribution ahead of final verification.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Мадриде 1 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Мадриде 1 сентября?
16°C or below 46%
17°C 30%
18°C 28%
19°C 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 сент. 2026 г.
16°C or below
46%
17°C
30%
18°C
28%
19°C
18%
20°C
13%
21°C
12%
22°C
7%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
4%
26°C or higher
1%
16°C or below 46%
17°C 30%
18°C 28%
19°C 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 сент. 2026 г.
16°C or below
$0 Объем
46%
17°C
$0 Объем
30%
18°C
$0 Объем
28%
19°C
$0 Объем
18%
20°C
$0 Объем
13%
21°C
$0 Объем
12%
22°C
$0 Объем
7%
23°C
$0 Объем
2%
24°C
$0 Объем
3%
25°C
$10 Объем
4%
26°C or higher
$0 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate overnight lows in Madrid of 19–21°C on September 1 under persistent high-pressure stability and clear skies, with limited radiative cooling due to warm advection from the south. This aligns with AEMET's above-normal temperature outlook for early September and historical averages near 17.8°C, making 16–18°C outcomes the market leaders at a combined ~78% implied probability while capping warmer scenarios. Short-range model consensus shows minimal precipitation or frontal influence through the period, though slight downward revisions in recent runs have sustained trader focus on the lower end of the distribution ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$10Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate overnight lows in Madrid of 19–21°C on September 1 under persistent high-pressure stability and clear skies, with limited radiative cooling due to warm advection from the south. This aligns with AEMET's above-normal temperature outlook for early September and historical averages near 17.8°C, making 16–18°C outcomes the market leaders at a combined ~78% implied probability while capping warmer scenarios. Short-range model consensus shows minimal precipitation or frontal influence through the period, though slight downward revisions in recent runs have sustained trader focus on the lower end of the distribution ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$10Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate overnight lows in Madrid of 19–21°C on September 1 under persistent high-pressure stability and clear skies, with limited radiative cooling due to warm advection from the south. This aligns with AEMET's above-normal temperature outlook for early September and historical averages near 17.8°C, making 16–18°C outcomes the market leaders at a combined ~78% implied probability while capping warmer scenarios. Short-range model consensus shows minimal precipitation or frontal influence through the period, though slight downward revisions in recent runs have sustained trader focus on the lower end of the distribution ahead of final verification.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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