Persistent high pressure and a warm, moist air mass with dew points near 70°F kept overnight minima elevated across Houston on August 22, producing the tight split between the 80-81°F (51.4%) and 78-79°F (49.4%) bins. Subtle differences in model depictions of dew-point depression, timing of any residual cloud cover, and urban heat-island retention explain why probabilities remain nearly even rather than converging on a single range. Official observations from stations such as William P. Hobby Airport show recent lows clustered in the upper 70s to low 80s, consistent with August climatology but above the long-term average low near 77°F. Updated post-event data releases will determine final resolution.