Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and Dhubab have tightened control over Bab el-Mandeb approaches, triggering an immediate halving of daily transits to 15 on September 11 from 30 the prior day amid elevated security risks and rerouting incentives. This volatility, layered on August averages near 22 vessels daily and broader Red Sea suppression from prior attacks, underpins the tight market distribution favoring the 190-209 bin at 41.5% while assigning 32.5% to sub-170 outcomes. Traders price in ongoing uncertainty from potential further territorial moves, war-risk premiums, and selective tanker avoidance, with limited near-term catalysts beyond conflict developments that could shift weekly aggregates sharply in either direction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив за неделю до 14 сентября?
Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив за неделю до 14 сентября?
170-189 29%
190-209 29%
210-229 27%
<170 20%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
<170
20%
170-189
29%
190-209
29%
210-229
27%
230+
20%
170-189 29%
190-209 29%
210-229 27%
<170 20%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
<170
$0 Объем
20%
170-189
$0 Объем
29%
190-209
$0 Объем
29%
210-229
$0 Объем
27%
230+
$0 Объем
20%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and Dhubab have tightened control over Bab el-Mandeb approaches, triggering an immediate halving of daily transits to 15 on September 11 from 30 the prior day amid elevated security risks and rerouting incentives. This volatility, layered on August averages near 22 vessels daily and broader Red Sea suppression from prior attacks, underpins the tight market distribution favoring the 190-209 bin at 41.5% while assigning 32.5% to sub-170 outcomes. Traders price in ongoing uncertainty from potential further territorial moves, war-risk premiums, and selective tanker avoidance, with limited near-term catalysts beyond conflict developments that could shift weekly aggregates sharply in either direction.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Открытие рынка: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and Dhubab have tightened control over Bab el-Mandeb approaches, triggering an immediate halving of daily transits to 15 on September 11 from 30 the prior day amid elevated security risks and rerouting incentives. This volatility, layered on August averages near 22 vessels daily and broader Red Sea suppression from prior attacks, underpins the tight market distribution favoring the 190-209 bin at 41.5% while assigning 32.5% to sub-170 outcomes. Traders price in ongoing uncertainty from potential further territorial moves, war-risk premiums, and selective tanker avoidance, with limited near-term catalysts beyond conflict developments that could shift weekly aggregates sharply in either direction.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and Dhubab have tightened control over Bab el-Mandeb approaches, triggering an immediate halving of daily transits to 15 on September 11 from 30 the prior day amid elevated security risks and rerouting incentives. This volatility, layered on August averages near 22 vessels daily and broader Red Sea suppression from prior attacks, underpins the tight market distribution favoring the 190-209 bin at 41.5% while assigning 32.5% to sub-170 outcomes. Traders price in ongoing uncertainty from potential further territorial moves, war-risk premiums, and selective tanker avoidance, with limited near-term catalysts beyond conflict developments that could shift weekly aggregates sharply in either direction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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