Recent Météo-France and ECMWF model consensus points to a cooling trend for Paris on August 15, with peak daytime temperatures most likely reaching 32–33°C under increasing cloud cover and a risk of afternoon thunderstorms that limit solar heating. This shift follows midweek highs near 38°C driven by persistent high pressure, clear skies, and weak winds favoring strong insolation. The implied probabilities favoring 32–33°C outcomes reflect updated short-range guidance showing the arrival of a cooler air mass by the weekend, consistent with climatological patterns where early August heat often moderates quickly. Traders are monitoring the next model runs for any revisions to timing or intensity of the expected stabilization around these thresholds.