Recent model consensus from the ECMWF and Italian Meteorological Service points to peak daytime highs of 34–36 °C in Milan on August 15 under a persistent high-pressure regime, with mostly clear skies and light easterly winds that favor strong solar heating above the long-term August average of 29–30 °C. Trader emphasis on the 34 °C and 35 °C bins reflects modest uncertainties in afternoon boundary-layer mixing, urban heat-island effects within the city, and any thin high-level cloud that could trim maximum temperatures by 1–2 °C. Official forecasts indicate minimal precipitation risk and stable steering patterns through the weekend, keeping resolution criteria tightly clustered around these values while leaving limited room for 37 °C or higher outcomes.