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icon for Илон Маск подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?
Технологии·AI

Илон Маск подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?

icon for Илон Маск подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?
Технологии·AI

Илон Маск подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?

Да

9% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Да

9% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% probability that Elon Musk will not sign the July 2026 "Pacing the Frontier" statement by September 30 because he has repeatedly declined formal endorsement despite months of opportunity and his recent public agreement with the idea. The original statement, signed by over 1,300 employees at OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to coordinate slower frontier AI progress amid risks from automated research. Musk endorsed Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay with only the brief post “Dario is right” and has not added his name or xAI’s commitment to embedded evaluators, common standards, or governance mechanisms. With just two weeks remaining, no new announcements or listing on pacingthefrontier.com have appeared. A last-minute signature remains possible if Musk seeks alignment with peers or faces unexpected pressure, but current trader consensus views formal commitment as unlikely given his pattern of informal support.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$4,775
Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% probability that Elon Musk will not sign the July 2026 "Pacing the Frontier" statement by September 30 because he has repeatedly declined formal endorsement despite months of opportunity and his recent public agreement with the idea. The original statement, signed by over 1,300 employees at OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to coordinate slower frontier AI progress amid risks from automated research. Musk endorsed Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay with only the brief post “Dario is right” and has not added his name or xAI’s commitment to embedded evaluators, common standards, or governance mechanisms. With just two weeks remaining, no new announcements or listing on pacingthefrontier.com have appeared. A last-minute signature remains possible if Musk seeks alignment with peers or faces unexpected pressure, but current trader consensus views formal commitment as unlikely given his pattern of informal support.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$4,775
Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...

Связанные

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Илон Маск подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Илон Маск подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier до 30 сентября?» с 9%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 9¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 9%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Илон Маск подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Sep 14, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

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Это очень открытый рынок. Текущий лидер для «Илон Маск подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?» — «Илон Маск подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier до 30 сентября?» всего с 9%. Поскольку ни один исход не доминирует, трейдеры видят это как крайне неопределённую ситуацию, что может создавать уникальные торговые возможности. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени, так что добавь эту страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Илон Маск подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.