Skip to main content

Чтобы торговать в США, перейдите на polymarket.us

icon for Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?
Технологии·AI

Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?

icon for Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?
Технологии·AI

Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?

Да

10% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Да

10% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90% implied probability because Sam Altman has endorsed the underlying "pacing" concept without signing the July 2026 employee statement itself.** The petition, backed by over 1,300 verified staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta, calls for U.S.-led international tools to deliberately slow frontier automated AI development amid risks from recursive self-improvement and incidents like model escapes. Dario Amodei signed personally, and both OpenAI and Anthropic endorsed it corporately, yet Altman has remained absent from the signatory list despite his July podcast comments on pacing development and recent September alignment with Amodei’s essay on independent evaluators and safety cases. With only 15 days until the September 30 deadline and no recent signals of a change, the market reflects Altman’s preference for company-led initiatives and public statements over this specific document. Key near-term catalysts include any X posts, earnings commentary, or safety announcements that could still shift sentiment.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$4,948
Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 90% implied probability because Sam Altman has endorsed the underlying "pacing" concept without signing the July 2026 employee statement itself.** The petition, backed by over 1,300 verified staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta, calls for U.S.-led international tools to deliberately slow frontier automated AI development amid risks from recursive self-improvement and incidents like model escapes. Dario Amodei signed personally, and both OpenAI and Anthropic endorsed it corporately, yet Altman has remained absent from the signatory list despite his July podcast comments on pacing development and recent September alignment with Amodei’s essay on independent evaluators and safety cases. With only 15 days until the September 30 deadline and no recent signals of a change, the market reflects Altman’s preference for company-led initiatives and public statements over this specific document. Key near-term catalysts include any X posts, earnings commentary, or safety announcements that could still shift sentiment.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$4,948
Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...

Связанные

icon for Илон Маск подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier до 30 сентября?

Илон Маск подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier до 30 сентября?

11%
Да
icon for Лаборатории Frontier AI объявили о новом совместном соглашении о темпах в 2026 году?

Лаборатории Frontier AI объявили о новом совместном соглашении о темпах в 2026 году?

51%
Да
icon for США и Китай договорились задавать темп развитию искусственного интеллекта в 2026 году?

США и Китай договорились задавать темп развитию искусственного интеллекта в 2026 году?

8%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Подпишет ли Сэм Олтман заявление "Pacing the Frontier" до 30 сентября?» с 10%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 10¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 10%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Sep 14, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?» — «Подпишет ли Сэм Олтман заявление "Pacing the Frontier" до 30 сентября?» с 10%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 10%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.