Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin state election place SPD support at 10–12 percent, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to an outcome below 13 percent. The party, currently the junior partner in the CDU-led governing coalition, has seen its standing erode since the 2023 repeat election amid gains by the Left Party, CDU, and AfD. Mid-September surveys from INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and Infratest dimap show the SPD trailing in fifth place, with limited movement in the final weeks. A September 9 search of SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach’s properties in connection with a donation inquiry added negative visibility. These factors have kept implied probabilities concentrated on single-digit or low-double-digit results rather than a rebound above 16 percent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено<10% 53.5%
10-13% 37%
13–16% 9.3%
16%+ <1%
$39,366 Объем
$39,366 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<10%
54%
10-13%
37%
13–16%
9%
16%+
1%
<10% 53.5%
10-13% 37%
13–16% 9.3%
16%+ <1%
$39,366 Объем
$39,366 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<10%
$17,341 Объем
54%
10-13%
$6,999 Объем
37%
13–16%
$11,035 Объем
9%
16%+
$3,991 Объем
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin state election place SPD support at 10–12 percent, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to an outcome below 13 percent. The party, currently the junior partner in the CDU-led governing coalition, has seen its standing erode since the 2023 repeat election amid gains by the Left Party, CDU, and AfD. Mid-September surveys from INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and Infratest dimap show the SPD trailing in fifth place, with limited movement in the final weeks. A September 9 search of SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach’s properties in connection with a donation inquiry added negative visibility. These factors have kept implied probabilities concentrated on single-digit or low-double-digit results rather than a rebound above 16 percent.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Объем
$39,366Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin state election place SPD support at 10–12 percent, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to an outcome below 13 percent. The party, currently the junior partner in the CDU-led governing coalition, has seen its standing erode since the 2023 repeat election amid gains by the Left Party, CDU, and AfD. Mid-September surveys from INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and Infratest dimap show the SPD trailing in fifth place, with limited movement in the final weeks. A September 9 search of SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach’s properties in connection with a donation inquiry added negative visibility. These factors have kept implied probabilities concentrated on single-digit or low-double-digit results rather than a rebound above 16 percent.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Объем
$39,366Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin state election place SPD support at 10–12 percent, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to an outcome below 13 percent. The party, currently the junior partner in the CDU-led governing coalition, has seen its standing erode since the 2023 repeat election amid gains by the Left Party, CDU, and AfD. Mid-September surveys from INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and Infratest dimap show the SPD trailing in fifth place, with limited movement in the final weeks. A September 9 search of SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach’s properties in connection with a donation inquiry added negative visibility. These factors have kept implied probabilities concentrated on single-digit or low-double-digit results rather than a rebound above 16 percent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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