Forecast models from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and others show Super Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 5 system with winds near 145 mph far east of the Philippines at roughly 20°N 158°E, undergoing steady weakening as it tracks west-northwest. Environmental factors including increasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier air are expected to drop it below Category 3 intensity well before it nears the Ryukyu Islands or East China Sea late next week. Official guidance indicates any landfall or close approach to Japan or eastern China will occur only after the storm has diminished to Category 1 or 2 strength, supporting the 90% market-implied probability against a Category 4+ landfall. Updated model runs and satellite observations over the past 48 hours have reinforced this consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO Super Tufão Dolphin atingirá a terra firme com força de Categoria 4 ou superior?
O Super Tufão Dolphin atingirá a terra firme com força de Categoria 4 ou superior?
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
16 ago 2026
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
16 ago 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Forecast models from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and others show Super Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 5 system with winds near 145 mph far east of the Philippines at roughly 20°N 158°E, undergoing steady weakening as it tracks west-northwest. Environmental factors including increasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier air are expected to drop it below Category 3 intensity well before it nears the Ryukyu Islands or East China Sea late next week. Official guidance indicates any landfall or close approach to Japan or eastern China will occur only after the storm has diminished to Category 1 or 2 strength, supporting the 90% market-implied probability against a Category 4+ landfall. Updated model runs and satellite observations over the past 48 hours have reinforced this consensus.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$25Mercado Aberto
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Forecast models from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and others show Super Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 5 system with winds near 145 mph far east of the Philippines at roughly 20°N 158°E, undergoing steady weakening as it tracks west-northwest. Environmental factors including increasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier air are expected to drop it below Category 3 intensity well before it nears the Ryukyu Islands or East China Sea late next week. Official guidance indicates any landfall or close approach to Japan or eastern China will occur only after the storm has diminished to Category 1 or 2 strength, supporting the 90% market-implied probability against a Category 4+ landfall. Updated model runs and satellite observations over the past 48 hours have reinforced this consensus.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volume
$25Data de Término
16 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Forecast models from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and others show Super Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 5 system with winds near 145 mph far east of the Philippines at roughly 20°N 158°E, undergoing steady weakening as it tracks west-northwest. Environmental factors including increasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier air are expected to drop it below Category 3 intensity well before it nears the Ryukyu Islands or East China Sea late next week. Official guidance indicates any landfall or close approach to Japan or eastern China will occur only after the storm has diminished to Category 1 or 2 strength, supporting the 90% market-implied probability against a Category 4+ landfall. Updated model runs and satellite observations over the past 48 hours have reinforced this consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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