The UAE's May 2026 exit—the most significant recent departure—has not triggered immediate follow-on withdrawals, leaving traders with a 61.5% implied probability that no additional country will leave OPEC before year-end. Iraq signaled quota dissatisfaction in June but confirmed it intends to remain while negotiating higher targets, amid ongoing OPEC+ output adjustments and compensation talks among core members. Production increases through September, combined with the group's focus on market stability during regional export disruptions, have reinforced cohesion. No other members have announced exit intentions, and historical patterns show quota disputes often resolve through internal bargaining rather than departures. Late-year quota reviews or renewed tensions could still shift dynamics before December.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
39% chance
$175,089 Vol.
$175,089 Vol.
31 dez 2026
39% chance
$175,089 Vol.
$175,089 Vol.
31 dez 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's May 2026 exit—the most significant recent departure—has not triggered immediate follow-on withdrawals, leaving traders with a 61.5% implied probability that no additional country will leave OPEC before year-end. Iraq signaled quota dissatisfaction in June but confirmed it intends to remain while negotiating higher targets, amid ongoing OPEC+ output adjustments and compensation talks among core members. Production increases through September, combined with the group's focus on market stability during regional export disruptions, have reinforced cohesion. No other members have announced exit intentions, and historical patterns show quota disputes often resolve through internal bargaining rather than departures. Late-year quota reviews or renewed tensions could still shift dynamics before December.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$175,089Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's May 2026 exit—the most significant recent departure—has not triggered immediate follow-on withdrawals, leaving traders with a 61.5% implied probability that no additional country will leave OPEC before year-end. Iraq signaled quota dissatisfaction in June but confirmed it intends to remain while negotiating higher targets, amid ongoing OPEC+ output adjustments and compensation talks among core members. Production increases through September, combined with the group's focus on market stability during regional export disruptions, have reinforced cohesion. No other members have announced exit intentions, and historical patterns show quota disputes often resolve through internal bargaining rather than departures. Late-year quota reviews or renewed tensions could still shift dynamics before December.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$175,089Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE's May 2026 exit—the most significant recent departure—has not triggered immediate follow-on withdrawals, leaving traders with a 61.5% implied probability that no additional country will leave OPEC before year-end. Iraq signaled quota dissatisfaction in June but confirmed it intends to remain while negotiating higher targets, amid ongoing OPEC+ output adjustments and compensation talks among core members. Production increases through September, combined with the group's focus on market stability during regional export disruptions, have reinforced cohesion. No other members have announced exit intentions, and historical patterns show quota disputes often resolve through internal bargaining rather than departures. Late-year quota reviews or renewed tensions could still shift dynamics before December.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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