US policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on economic coercion through an oil import blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on suppliers and regime figures, and diplomatic outreach rather than kinetic operations. The administration has positioned naval and surveillance assets in the Caribbean while examining limited military scenarios, yet commitments in the Middle East and a preference for negotiated transition modeled on recent Venezuela developments have kept full-scale clashes off the table. Recent August sanctions targeting energy and arms networks, alongside Cuban prisoner releases and bilateral military talks near Guantanamo, reinforce trader views that the 80.5% probability on no clash reflects sustained non-military pressure through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoConfronto militar EUA x Cuba em 2026?
Confronto militar EUA x Cuba em 2026?
Sim
20% chance
$239,148 Vol.
$239,148 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
20% chance
$239,148 Vol.
$239,148 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on economic coercion through an oil import blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on suppliers and regime figures, and diplomatic outreach rather than kinetic operations. The administration has positioned naval and surveillance assets in the Caribbean while examining limited military scenarios, yet commitments in the Middle East and a preference for negotiated transition modeled on recent Venezuela developments have kept full-scale clashes off the table. Recent August sanctions targeting energy and arms networks, alongside Cuban prisoner releases and bilateral military talks near Guantanamo, reinforce trader views that the 80.5% probability on no clash reflects sustained non-military pressure through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$239,148Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on economic coercion through an oil import blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on suppliers and regime figures, and diplomatic outreach rather than kinetic operations. The administration has positioned naval and surveillance assets in the Caribbean while examining limited military scenarios, yet commitments in the Middle East and a preference for negotiated transition modeled on recent Venezuela developments have kept full-scale clashes off the table. Recent August sanctions targeting energy and arms networks, alongside Cuban prisoner releases and bilateral military talks near Guantanamo, reinforce trader views that the 80.5% probability on no clash reflects sustained non-military pressure through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$239,148Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on economic coercion through an oil import blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on suppliers and regime figures, and diplomatic outreach rather than kinetic operations. The administration has positioned naval and surveillance assets in the Caribbean while examining limited military scenarios, yet commitments in the Middle East and a preference for negotiated transition modeled on recent Venezuela developments have kept full-scale clashes off the table. Recent August sanctions targeting energy and arms networks, alongside Cuban prisoner releases and bilateral military talks near Guantanamo, reinforce trader views that the 80.5% probability on no clash reflects sustained non-military pressure through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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