Russia’s maximalist demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, including full control of Donetsk, combined with ongoing military advances and explicit rejection of ceasefires or joint proposals, sustain the deep pause in negotiations that began after early 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Kremlin statements in late August 2026 described talks as stalled, with officials dismissing European-Ukrainian security frameworks and insisting any settlement reflect battlefield realities. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no deal by October 31 reflects this entrenched impasse and the absence of scheduled summits or breakthroughs within the window. A sudden shift in Russian leadership priorities, major battlefield reversal, or renewed U.S. diplomatic push could still alter timelines, though current conditions indicate low likelihood of resolution before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
5% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 out 2026
Sim
5% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 out 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia’s maximalist demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, including full control of Donetsk, combined with ongoing military advances and explicit rejection of ceasefires or joint proposals, sustain the deep pause in negotiations that began after early 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Kremlin statements in late August 2026 described talks as stalled, with officials dismissing European-Ukrainian security frameworks and insisting any settlement reflect battlefield realities. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no deal by October 31 reflects this entrenched impasse and the absence of scheduled summits or breakthroughs within the window. A sudden shift in Russian leadership priorities, major battlefield reversal, or renewed U.S. diplomatic push could still alter timelines, though current conditions indicate low likelihood of resolution before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$712Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia’s maximalist demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, including full control of Donetsk, combined with ongoing military advances and explicit rejection of ceasefires or joint proposals, sustain the deep pause in negotiations that began after early 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Kremlin statements in late August 2026 described talks as stalled, with officials dismissing European-Ukrainian security frameworks and insisting any settlement reflect battlefield realities. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no deal by October 31 reflects this entrenched impasse and the absence of scheduled summits or breakthroughs within the window. A sudden shift in Russian leadership priorities, major battlefield reversal, or renewed U.S. diplomatic push could still alter timelines, though current conditions indicate low likelihood of resolution before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$712Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s maximalist demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, including full control of Donetsk, combined with ongoing military advances and explicit rejection of ceasefires or joint proposals, sustain the deep pause in negotiations that began after early 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Kremlin statements in late August 2026 described talks as stalled, with officials dismissing European-Ukrainian security frameworks and insisting any settlement reflect battlefield realities. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no deal by October 31 reflects this entrenched impasse and the absence of scheduled summits or breakthroughs within the window. A sudden shift in Russian leadership priorities, major battlefield reversal, or renewed U.S. diplomatic push could still alter timelines, though current conditions indicate low likelihood of resolution before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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