Traders assign a 93.5% probability against a Trump-Putin-Zelensky trilateral meeting before 2027 because repeated rounds of U.S.-brokered negotiations have remained at the envoy or delegation level without advancing to a leaders' summit. Multiple trilateral sessions involving U.S. special envoys, Ukrainian officials, and Russian representatives occurred in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026, yet core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and cease-fire terms have produced no breakthrough sufficient to justify direct presidential involvement. Recent developments, including renewed envoy travel to Moscow and separate bilateral calls between Trump and each leader, underscore continued diplomatic activity without scheduled three-way leader engagement. Ongoing battlefield pressure, Ukrainian strikes into Russia, and Russian insistence on maximalist conditions further reduce the near-term likelihood of the high-stakes format required for resolution before the 2027 deadline.