A strong and rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.6°C as of late August 2026, is the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for September ranking among the top three warmest on record. This event, already classified as very strong by NOAA with over 90% chance of persisting through fall, adds substantial atmospheric heat release that typically peaks later but begins influencing global means in September. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and record ocean surface temperatures observed through August, the baseline for the month sits near or above recent extremes like 2023–2024. Model consensus points to continued high anomalies, though exact September placement hinges on short-term variability and dataset differences; upcoming early-month updates from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1º, 2º ou 3º de setembro de 2026 mais quente já registrado?
1º, 2º ou 3º de setembro de 2026 mais quente já registrado?
2º mais quente 57%
Mais quente 36%
4º ou inferior 30%
3º mais quente 29%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
Mais quente
36%
2º mais quente
57%
3º mais quente
29%
4º ou inferior
30%
2º mais quente 57%
Mais quente 36%
4º ou inferior 30%
3º mais quente 29%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
Mais quente
$273 Vol.
36%
2º mais quente
$0 Vol.
57%
3º mais quente
$0 Vol.
29%
4º ou inferior
$250 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong and rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.6°C as of late August 2026, is the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for September ranking among the top three warmest on record. This event, already classified as very strong by NOAA with over 90% chance of persisting through fall, adds substantial atmospheric heat release that typically peaks later but begins influencing global means in September. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and record ocean surface temperatures observed through August, the baseline for the month sits near or above recent extremes like 2023–2024. Model consensus points to continued high anomalies, though exact September placement hinges on short-term variability and dataset differences; upcoming early-month updates from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$523Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong and rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.6°C as of late August 2026, is the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for September ranking among the top three warmest on record. This event, already classified as very strong by NOAA with over 90% chance of persisting through fall, adds substantial atmospheric heat release that typically peaks later but begins influencing global means in September. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and record ocean surface temperatures observed through August, the baseline for the month sits near or above recent extremes like 2023–2024. Model consensus points to continued high anomalies, though exact September placement hinges on short-term variability and dataset differences; upcoming early-month updates from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$523Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong and rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.6°C as of late August 2026, is the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for September ranking among the top three warmest on record. This event, already classified as very strong by NOAA with over 90% chance of persisting through fall, adds substantial atmospheric heat release that typically peaks later but begins influencing global means in September. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and record ocean surface temperatures observed through August, the baseline for the month sits near or above recent extremes like 2023–2024. Model consensus points to continued high anomalies, though exact September placement hinges on short-term variability and dataset differences; upcoming early-month updates from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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