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icon for Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Scarborough Southwest
Política·Canadá

Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Scarborough Southwest

icon for Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Scarborough Southwest
Política·Canadá

Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Scarborough Southwest

Ahsanul Hafiz 67%

Fatima Shaban 31%

Noor Tarun <1%

Mark Bekkering <1%

Polymarket

$12,437 Vol.

Ahsanul Hafiz 67%

Fatima Shaban 31%

Noor Tarun <1%

Mark Bekkering <1%

Polymarket

$12,437 Vol.

icon for Ahsanul Hafiz

Ahsanul Hafiz

$4,304 Vol.

67%

icon for Fatima Shaban

Fatima Shaban

$6,377 Vol.

31%

icon for Noor Tarun

Noor Tarun

$570 Vol.

1%

icon for Mark Bekkering

Mark Bekkering

$611 Vol.

<1%

icon for Chris Rees

Chris Rees

$574 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).Ahsanul Hafiz leads trader consensus at 67% in the September 3, 2026, Ontario provincial by-election for Scarborough Southwest, ahead of Fatima Shaban at 31%, with other declared candidates such as Noor Tarun, Mark Bekkering, and Chris Rees trading at minimal levels. The Liberal nominee secured the riding’s nomination in May after a narrow three-ballot victory over a sitting federal MP, demonstrating organized party support and fundraising capacity as a local business owner. The riding’s 2025 results showed the NDP ahead of the PCs and Liberals, yet the by-election occurs amid visible Liberal campaign activity, including sign installations and voter outreach. Shaban, nominated by the NDP in April as a community organizer, faces a competitive three-way contest with the PCs fielding a physician candidate. Traders appear to price in Hafiz’s organizational edge and the short timeline to election day as the primary drivers of current implied probabilities.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$12,437
Data de Término
3 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).Ahsanul Hafiz leads trader consensus at 67% in the September 3, 2026, Ontario provincial by-election for Scarborough Southwest, ahead of Fatima Shaban at 31%, with other declared candidates such as Noor Tarun, Mark Bekkering, and Chris Rees trading at minimal levels. The Liberal nominee secured the riding’s nomination in May after a narrow three-ballot victory over a sitting federal MP, demonstrating organized party support and fundraising capacity as a local business owner. The riding’s 2025 results showed the NDP ahead of the PCs and Liberals, yet the by-election occurs amid visible Liberal campaign activity, including sign installations and voter outreach. Shaban, nominated by the NDP in April as a community organizer, faces a competitive three-way contest with the PCs fielding a physician candidate. Traders appear to price in Hafiz’s organizational edge and the short timeline to election day as the primary drivers of current implied probabilities.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$12,437
Data de Término
3 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Scarborough Southwest" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ahsanul Hafiz" at 67%, followed by "Fatima Shaban" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Scarborough Southwest" has generated $12.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Scarborough Southwest," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Scarborough Southwest" is "Ahsanul Hafiz" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Fatima Shaban" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Scarborough Southwest" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.