Peru's interim government under President José María Balcázar formally rejected Pedro Castillo's latest pardon request in late July 2026, with the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights declaring the application inadmissible through the Commission of Presidential Pardons. Castillo remains incarcerated following his November 2025 conviction and 11.5-year sentence for rebellion and conspiracy tied to the 2022 self-coup attempt. The transitional administration has prioritized legal finality ahead of the 2026 elections and issued explicit statements ruling out any commutation or humanitarian pardon. These confirmed official actions, combined with the short remaining timeline in the current term, underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability against a 2026 pardon.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
14% chance
$43,022 Vol.
$43,022 Vol.
30 dez 2026
14% chance
$43,022 Vol.
$43,022 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Peru's interim government under President José María Balcázar formally rejected Pedro Castillo's latest pardon request in late July 2026, with the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights declaring the application inadmissible through the Commission of Presidential Pardons. Castillo remains incarcerated following his November 2025 conviction and 11.5-year sentence for rebellion and conspiracy tied to the 2022 self-coup attempt. The transitional administration has prioritized legal finality ahead of the 2026 elections and issued explicit statements ruling out any commutation or humanitarian pardon. These confirmed official actions, combined with the short remaining timeline in the current term, underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability against a 2026 pardon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Volume
$43,022Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Peru's interim government under President José María Balcázar formally rejected Pedro Castillo's latest pardon request in late July 2026, with the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights declaring the application inadmissible through the Commission of Presidential Pardons. Castillo remains incarcerated following his November 2025 conviction and 11.5-year sentence for rebellion and conspiracy tied to the 2022 self-coup attempt. The transitional administration has prioritized legal finality ahead of the 2026 elections and issued explicit statements ruling out any commutation or humanitarian pardon. These confirmed official actions, combined with the short remaining timeline in the current term, underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability against a 2026 pardon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$43,022Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Peru's interim government under President José María Balcázar formally rejected Pedro Castillo's latest pardon request in late July 2026, with the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights declaring the application inadmissible through the Commission of Presidential Pardons. Castillo remains incarcerated following his November 2025 conviction and 11.5-year sentence for rebellion and conspiracy tied to the 2022 self-coup attempt. The transitional administration has prioritized legal finality ahead of the 2026 elections and issued explicit statements ruling out any commutation or humanitarian pardon. These confirmed official actions, combined with the short remaining timeline in the current term, underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability against a 2026 pardon.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions