Skip to main content
icon for Miguel Díaz-Canel como Presidente de Cuba por...?

Miguel Díaz-Canel como Presidente de Cuba por...?

icon for Miguel Díaz-Canel como Presidente de Cuba por...?

Miguel Díaz-Canel como Presidente de Cuba por...?

$371,819 Vol.

31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$371,819 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de dezembro

$1,180 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s president and Communist Party first secretary as of late August 2026, with his current National Assembly term extending into 2028. Persistent U.S. sanctions, an intensified energy blockade, and diplomatic pressure for leadership transition have fueled speculation about possible successors, including Castro relatives such as Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga or Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro. Havana has responded with a package of 176 economic reforms expanding private-sector roles and has conducted limited talks with Washington on energy issues, while rejecting any externally imposed change. Recent circulation of unverified resignation rumors in August 2026 produced no confirmation, and official activities show continued governance. Scheduled National Assembly sessions, reform implementation timelines, and the approach of 2028 parliamentary elections represent the main institutional checkpoints that could influence succession probabilities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$371,819
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 7:45 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s president and Communist Party first secretary as of late August 2026, with his current National Assembly term extending into 2028. Persistent U.S. sanctions, an intensified energy blockade, and diplomatic pressure for leadership transition have fueled speculation about possible successors, including Castro relatives such as Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga or Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro. Havana has responded with a package of 176 economic reforms expanding private-sector roles and has conducted limited talks with Washington on energy issues, while rejecting any externally imposed change. Recent circulation of unverified resignation rumors in August 2026 produced no confirmation, and official activities show continued governance. Scheduled National Assembly sessions, reform implementation timelines, and the approach of 2028 parliamentary elections represent the main institutional checkpoints that could influence succession probabilities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$371,819
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 7:45 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Miguel Díaz-Canel como Presidente de Cuba por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 26%, followed by "30 de junho" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Miguel Díaz-Canel como Presidente de Cuba por...?" has generated $371.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Miguel Díaz-Canel como Presidente de Cuba por...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Miguel Díaz-Canel como Presidente de Cuba por...?" is "31 de dezembro" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30 de junho" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Miguel Díaz-Canel como Presidente de Cuba por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.