**Mild overnight conditions under cloudy skies and a warm, humid air mass are keeping the lowest temperature in Paris on August 26 centered on 18–19°C.** Multiple short-range forecasts from Météo-France-aligned sources and international models show early-morning readings bottoming out near 18°C after a day of 26–28°C highs, with limited nocturnal radiative cooling due to persistent cloud cover and light southerly or easterly flow. Dew points remaining in the mid-to-upper teens further suppress temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect in central Paris adds a small positive bias relative to rural sites. Recent model runs have shown only minor shifts in the overnight minimum, with ensembles clustering tightly around 18–19°C rather than the cooler 16–17°C values seen earlier in the week. The 33% market-implied probability on 18°C versus 26.5% on 19°C therefore reflects the narrow but real uncertainty in exact clearing timing, wind speed, and station-specific measurement, typical for a single-night temperature market where small forecast adjustments can swing the outcome between adjacent degree thresholds.