**Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or damaging key facilities and limiting access to highly enriched uranium stockpiles.** IAEA inspectors withdrew after the initial strikes, and subsequent reports confirm no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities, with Iran's enriched uranium described as inaccessible under rubble. Ongoing diplomatic talks have featured U.S. demands for facility dismantlement and material transfer, which Iran has resisted, while satellite imagery and intelligence assessments show reconstruction efforts remain incomplete and vulnerable to further action. No nuclear tests have occurred, and seismic events previously speculated as tests were confirmed as natural earthquakes. These developments, combined with sustained international pressure and monitoring gaps that nonetheless show no breakout to testing, underpin traders' strong consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
$206,740 Vol.
$206,740 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$206,740 Vol.
$206,740 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or damaging key facilities and limiting access to highly enriched uranium stockpiles.** IAEA inspectors withdrew after the initial strikes, and subsequent reports confirm no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities, with Iran's enriched uranium described as inaccessible under rubble. Ongoing diplomatic talks have featured U.S. demands for facility dismantlement and material transfer, which Iran has resisted, while satellite imagery and intelligence assessments show reconstruction efforts remain incomplete and vulnerable to further action. No nuclear tests have occurred, and seismic events previously speculated as tests were confirmed as natural earthquakes. These developments, combined with sustained international pressure and monitoring gaps that nonetheless show no breakout to testing, underpin traders' strong consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$206,740Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or damaging key facilities and limiting access to highly enriched uranium stockpiles.** IAEA inspectors withdrew after the initial strikes, and subsequent reports confirm no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities, with Iran's enriched uranium described as inaccessible under rubble. Ongoing diplomatic talks have featured U.S. demands for facility dismantlement and material transfer, which Iran has resisted, while satellite imagery and intelligence assessments show reconstruction efforts remain incomplete and vulnerable to further action. No nuclear tests have occurred, and seismic events previously speculated as tests were confirmed as natural earthquakes. These developments, combined with sustained international pressure and monitoring gaps that nonetheless show no breakout to testing, underpin traders' strong consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$206,740Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or damaging key facilities and limiting access to highly enriched uranium stockpiles.** IAEA inspectors withdrew after the initial strikes, and subsequent reports confirm no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities, with Iran's enriched uranium described as inaccessible under rubble. Ongoing diplomatic talks have featured U.S. demands for facility dismantlement and material transfer, which Iran has resisted, while satellite imagery and intelligence assessments show reconstruction efforts remain incomplete and vulnerable to further action. No nuclear tests have occurred, and seismic events previously speculated as tests were confirmed as natural earthquakes. These developments, combined with sustained international pressure and monitoring gaps that nonetheless show no breakout to testing, underpin traders' strong consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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