Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA access and verification of Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, with officials stating enrichment has not resumed. These actions, alongside ongoing diplomatic negotiations and the absence of any confirmed weapons-related activities or tests, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains highly unlikely. Uncertainties over hidden materials and potential rebuilding could influence longer-term assessments, though near-term barriers appear substantial.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
$228,771 Vol.
$228,771 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$228,771 Vol.
$228,771 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA access and verification of Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, with officials stating enrichment has not resumed. These actions, alongside ongoing diplomatic negotiations and the absence of any confirmed weapons-related activities or tests, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains highly unlikely. Uncertainties over hidden materials and potential rebuilding could influence longer-term assessments, though near-term barriers appear substantial.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$228,771Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA access and verification of Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, with officials stating enrichment has not resumed. These actions, alongside ongoing diplomatic negotiations and the absence of any confirmed weapons-related activities or tests, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains highly unlikely. Uncertainties over hidden materials and potential rebuilding could influence longer-term assessments, though near-term barriers appear substantial.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$228,771Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA access and verification of Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, with officials stating enrichment has not resumed. These actions, alongside ongoing diplomatic negotiations and the absence of any confirmed weapons-related activities or tests, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains highly unlikely. Uncertainties over hidden materials and potential rebuilding could influence longer-term assessments, though near-term barriers appear substantial.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions