Recent forecasts from European and U.S. models indicate a cooling trend following the mid-August heatwave, with Paris highs on August 20 expected in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius under increasing cloud cover and possible early showers. Ensemble guidance shows modest day-to-day adjustments driven by Atlantic flow variability, Atlantic moisture transport, and boundary-layer mixing, keeping the distribution centered near climatological norms of 24–25 °C while allowing for 2–3 °C spread depending on exact cloud timing and wind direction. Traders appear to price this model consensus and inherent short-range uncertainty, with equal weighting across 23–27 °C outcomes reflecting the narrow but still uncertain envelope ahead of the next high-resolution runs.