Traders see the 40-64 tweet range as the clearest fit for Elon Musk’s baseline activity over the August 20-22 window, reflecting his established pattern of roughly 50-68 posts per day in recent years. Weekend volume often dips below weekday peaks yet rarely collapses, keeping sub-40 outcomes plausible but secondary at 31.5% implied probability. Higher buckets above 65 remain long shots, as sustained spikes typically require major product launches, regulatory news, or viral controversies that have not materialized in the immediate run-up. Recent activity centers on steady Grok and AI commentary without signs of escalation, reinforcing the market’s expectation of routine engagement rather than an outlier surge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado40-64 47%
<40 31.5%
65-89 17%
90-114 4.2%
NOVO
$13,977 Vol.
NOVO
$13,977 Vol.
22 ago 2026
<40
32%
40-64
47%
65-89
17%
90-114
4%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 47%
<40 31.5%
65-89 17%
90-114 4.2%
NOVO
$13,977 Vol.
NOVO
$13,977 Vol.
22 ago 2026
<40
$538 Vol.
32%
40-64
$191 Vol.
47%
65-89
$121 Vol.
17%
90-114
$171 Vol.
4%
115-139
$1,252 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$4,632 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$4,062 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$1,120 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,120 Vol.
<1%
240+
$770 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders see the 40-64 tweet range as the clearest fit for Elon Musk’s baseline activity over the August 20-22 window, reflecting his established pattern of roughly 50-68 posts per day in recent years. Weekend volume often dips below weekday peaks yet rarely collapses, keeping sub-40 outcomes plausible but secondary at 31.5% implied probability. Higher buckets above 65 remain long shots, as sustained spikes typically require major product launches, regulatory news, or viral controversies that have not materialized in the immediate run-up. Recent activity centers on steady Grok and AI commentary without signs of escalation, reinforcing the market’s expectation of routine engagement rather than an outlier surge.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$13,977Data de Término
22 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders see the 40-64 tweet range as the clearest fit for Elon Musk’s baseline activity over the August 20-22 window, reflecting his established pattern of roughly 50-68 posts per day in recent years. Weekend volume often dips below weekday peaks yet rarely collapses, keeping sub-40 outcomes plausible but secondary at 31.5% implied probability. Higher buckets above 65 remain long shots, as sustained spikes typically require major product launches, regulatory news, or viral controversies that have not materialized in the immediate run-up. Recent activity centers on steady Grok and AI commentary without signs of escalation, reinforcing the market’s expectation of routine engagement rather than an outlier surge.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$13,977Data de Término
22 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 40-64 tweet range as the clearest fit for Elon Musk’s baseline activity over the August 20-22 window, reflecting his established pattern of roughly 50-68 posts per day in recent years. Weekend volume often dips below weekday peaks yet rarely collapses, keeping sub-40 outcomes plausible but secondary at 31.5% implied probability. Higher buckets above 65 remain long shots, as sustained spikes typically require major product launches, regulatory news, or viral controversies that have not materialized in the immediate run-up. Recent activity centers on steady Grok and AI commentary without signs of escalation, reinforcing the market’s expectation of routine engagement rather than an outlier surge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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